View Full Version : Hospitable Bone Church no longer dropping from The Whirlwind adventure
I've now been doing several WWs every day for a month. Close to 100 chances to get that loot slot, just for me, but No Hospitable Bone Church has been dropping.. Neither for my guildmates..
I know you wanted this to be rare and did some changes (http://forum.thesettlersonline.com/threads/27847-Change-Log-09-04-2014?p=254497&viewfull=1#post254497), but if none has been dropped in 100 x4 chances....how many hundreds of WW do you expect us to play to get a drop?
I'm still enjoying that adv (Thanks for bringing that co-op adv to us!) so I will keep on playing it.. Thou will I ever see a Hospitable Bone Church drop?
Anyhow, I will update you in a month..
Have been doing x amounts of WW's with Smurfy and several other guildies and still no BC. I appreciate the fact that it should be rare but as I see it, there seem to be no chance of getting the BC, please rectify this.
Blackout85
28.07.14, 20:45
I have also done near on 100 with no Church, I have also done almost 80 DB's since my last WT.
Something's not right
I suggest you guys do a search for Nogbad and his painful run of bad luck on no white castles from STFR. All told he put in the equivalent of a decade with no drop.
The chance of not getting a 4% drop 100 times in a row is about 2%, it's not as unlikely as you seem to think. The drop chance doesn't care how many times you've played the adventure before, it's a straight roll each time. Read up on 'probability of independent events'.
The chance of not getting a 4% drop 100 times in a row is about 2%, it's not as unlikely as you seem to think. The drop chance doesn't care how many times you've played the adventure before, it's a straight roll each time. Read up on 'probability of independent events'.
Then read again how many times it's not been dropping..
There are 4 players in a WW..
I've also asked in another thread if someone has got a second HBT since the changes.. None has reported it.
It's still not actual data to prove anything. People posting that they haven't received one doesn't prove that nobody else has.
It's still not actual data to prove anything. People posting that they haven't received one doesn't prove that nobody else has.
Thou one person posting "it has been dropped" would prove a lot..
People who don't have anything to complain about don't post. It's self-confirmation bias, if you think there's a problem you look for and post in threads that say the drop rate is off. If you get the good result, why would you look for a thread to post about it?
Not all threads are about complaing.. Have you even checked that thread or are you confident in just trying to be hypothetical?
May I add, this topic has also been discussed in global-chat channels and the best "confirmation it should still drop" is what a loot-tracker is telling.. A third-party client.. How relevant is that info do you think? Is it even gathered on eu-servers or just on de-servers?
My guild uses a loottracker created by Procat from Lazy Monkeys and also used by THU on Newfoundland. It involves players inputting their adv loot manually into the site to keep track of their personal loot, and provides a good global overview of all loot drops on all adv. Whirlwind was added to this site on 7th June and in the 64 loot entries for whirlwind since that date, 3 have had bone churches drop.
All I'm saying is that all your evidence is anecdotal. Discussing it in Global doesn't mean anything as far as statistical probability is concerned, you're using a very small sample size and trying to suggest that it's proof of a problem. Again, not getting a drop after 100 attempts is unusual but not impossible and not having positive confirmation from asking in Global proves nothing at all.
inputting their adv loot manually
global overview of all loot drops
Thanks for info!
All I'm saying is that all your evidence is anecdotal. Discussing it in Global doesn't mean anything as far as statistical probability is concerned, you're using a very small sample size and trying to suggest that it's proof of a problem.
No, I'm asking for someone that can prove me wrong. If you can't see the logical reason in that, you'd better read some philosophy instead of referring stats.
Atleast I'm not relying on hearsaying or stats from other servers.
Again, not getting a drop after 100 attempts is unusual but not impossible and not having positive confirmation from asking in Global proves nothing at all.
Again, it's not just 100 attempts..
Atleast I'm not relying on hearsaying or stats from other servers.
You were absolutely relying on hearsay. "None of my friends", it was discussed in Global", "I asked in another thread". All of that is hearsay and anecdote.
hearsay = "unverified information acquired from another; rumor."
It's verified directly with them, not a "I think someone got one yesterday"-information.
I've now been doing several WWs every day for a month.
My guild uses a loottracker created by Procat from Lazy Monkeys and also used by THU on Newfoundland. It involves players inputting their adv loot manually into the site to keep track of their personal loot, and provides a good global overview of all loot drops on all adv. Whirlwind was added to this site on 7th June and in the 64 loot entries for whirlwind since that date, 3 have had bone churches drop.
Kit_, how many of the bone churches were entered in to your loot tracker on or after the 1st of July ?
Sorry to wade in but it was bugging me that no-one had asked that. :o
I've be doing WW longer than for a month, but severals every day for a month.
I don't trust the data in that loot tracker as it's from
players inputting their adv loot manually
and provides a
global overview of all loot drops.
I don't trust the data in that loot tracker as it's from
players inputting their adv loot manually
Hmmmm... Well you're a bit stuck then!
Entering it manually is the same thing as a player telling you that they dropped a church in the past month, if you don't trust that then I don't think you're going to find anyone who's dropped one. :p I could be wrong but "global overview of all loot drops" doesn't seem to mean much that'd make me question the information as it looks like everyone is on the same server, Newfoundland. If by global Kit_ means it contains data from different servers and the people talking in the thread were on different servers and/or the people entering it were then yeah, i'd say it's a valid concern.
Hmmmm... Well you're a bit stuck then!
Entering it manually is the same thing as a player telling you that they dropped a church in the past month, if you don't trust that then I don't think you're going to find anyone who's dropped one. :p
They may add they had a drop earlier, before the changes and before they got the loot tracker..
As I've said.. I'll keep doing WW and getting 4x loot info per WW I do.. Eventually there will be a drop, but as it's now.. it's no longer "about 2%".. It's about some ‰..
I meant that other than being able to see all the loot that I have entered for all of my adv's (personal stat's), I can see the loot drops for all adv's entered by all players on the tracker (global stat's). Those players are currently only from Lazy Monkey and THU guilds, both guilds on Newfoundland.
I have no idea exactly when those churches dropped, unless I want to try and trawl through hundreds upon hundreds of loot entries to find those specific entries. I only know when the co-op adventures were added to the tracker and records started of those loot drops.
And the players using this tracker have no reason to not enter accurate information, we mostly use it to keep track of what we have won, and to provide a picture of loot drop rates. Which is quite useful considering this debate. I would rather trust data collected by dedicated players than hearsay and speculation. One of the reasons only 2 guilds currently use this site, is to keep the site safe, with reliable data entry.
They may add they had a drop earlier, before the changes and before they got the loot tracker..
The stats that Kit_ provided say it's 4.6875% and the chance of it dropping is 4%, so assuming that the 64 attempts and 3 drops aren't fictitious or erroneous that seems to be in the right area... But, fair enough, bin that as unreliable if you like.
As I've said.. I'll keep doing WW and getting 4x loot info per WW I do.. Eventually there will be a drop, but as it's now.. it's no longer "about 2%".. It's about some ‰..
You should treat the four loot drops as separate collections of data really and then to get anything useful from it I'd say you'd have to keep banging away until each of the four sets has at least one success, the more the merrier though really... That's how I'd do it anyways.
You've got a long road ahead for sure and I wish you the best of luck! :o
Oh no here we are again, when are you guys going to learn.
So 96% of not getting the BC - each time. Hard one. Good luck from me too. ;-)
You should treat the four loot drops as separate collections of data really and then to get anything useful from it I'd say you'd have to keep banging away until each of the four sets has at least one success, the more the merrier though really... That's how I'd do it anyways.
You've got a long road ahead for sure and I wish you the best of luck! :o
Why should I treat the foor loot drops as separate collections? It's the same chance of (not) getting any HBC for every and each time. Do you think that loot tracker treat the four loot drops in four separate sets?
To all:
It's funny how people are able to know things are working as intended even though they obviously have not even done a check by them selves.
The only thing needed here is ONE person that can confirm there's been a drop since the changes.
As some already has started to trolling here.. I bet not.
Why should I treat the foor loot drops as separate collections? It's the same chance of (not) getting any HBC for every and each time. Do you think that loot tracker treat the four loot drops in four separate sets?
I'd treat them as separate sets of data for a few reasons but mainly because they are separate collections of sample data from different sources even though they come from the same adventure and to a lesser extent because I could only be certain of the data I collected myself. It's just the way I'd do it.
As some already has started to trolling here.. I bet not.
If that's directed at me then I assure you I'm not trolling. I'm interested in the subject because I'm a coder and one of the things write code for is a betting website. I was thinking about this in the car on the way home and I just wrote a little Python script to simulate what you're doing. Assuming that the drop calculation is entirely random and the implied drop rate is 4% each of these lines show a quick summary of 1000 iterations :
39/1000 (3.9%), longest losing run 149
42/1000 (4.2%), longest losing run 173
42/1000 (4.2%), longest losing run 185
28/1000 (2.8%), longest losing run 207
45/1000 (4.5%), longest losing run 155
41/1000 (4.1%), longest losing run 218
I tweaked it so it works more like the adventure and had a look what the longest losing run for a group of four people over a thousand iterations is, didn't make that output very readable though so you'll have to take my word on it... You've been pretty unlucky if you've done more than 100 with no-one dropping, in fact I'd say you've got about another 30 to go before my teeny weeny Python script completely agrees with you that something is broken - or at the very least the drop isn't completely random... But, as you say, all you need is one person to confirm there's been a drop since the changes.
I'd treat them as separate sets of data for a few reasons but mainly because they are separate collections of sample data from different sources even though they come from the same adventure and to a lesser extent because I could only be certain of the data I collected myself. It's just the way I'd do it.
As I've been doing all these WW with guildmates it's people I can expect would notify me if they had a drop. According to stats there could have been 16 HBC dropped from those 100 WWs, and perhaps they could have been dropped unnoticed, but it's less than 16 guildmates (with no reason to not notify me) involved here so it's quite improbably some HBC would have been dropped unnoticed - it's also easy for me to check their island..
If that's directed at me then I assure you I'm not trolling.
Nope, that was directed to others.
I'm interested in the subject because I'm a coder and one of the things write code for is a betting website. I was thinking about this in the car on the way home and I just wrote a little Python script to simulate what you're doing. Assuming that the drop calculation is entirely random and the implied drop rate is 4% each of these lines show a quick summary of 1000 iterations..
I tweaked it so it works more like the adventure and had a look what the longest losing run for a group of four people over a thousand iterations is, didn't make that output very readable though so you'll have to take my word on it... You've been pretty unlucky if you've done more than 100 with no-one dropping, in fact I'd say you've got about another 30 to go before my teeny weeny Python script completely agrees with you that something is broken - or at the very least the drop isn't completely random... But, as you say, all you need is one person to confirm there's been a drop since the changes.
Yes, a hundred more is also what I would say "a perfect streak of unluck".
Lets for the sake of argument say you do 1 whirlwind adventure, you compare your loot with what the others got. Question, how many times have you invoked the random number generator.
Lets for the sake of argument say you do 1 whirlwind adventure, you compare your loot with what the others got. Question, how many times have you invoked the random number generator.
4.. (0.96^4=0.849..) => about 85% There won't be any HBC dropping.
Yes, a hundred more is also what I would say "a perfect streak of unluck".
I tweaked this little script again so it's more human readable... I made a mistake, you're over already at 100 with nothing dropping for anyone. :o
*********************
Adventures Run : 10000000
1+ Drops : 1505116 (15.05116%)
No Drops : 8494884
Total Spot Drops : 1598648 / 40000000 (3.99662%)
Loot Spots : 400042 (4.00042%) | 399240 (3.9924%) | 399798 (3.99798%) | 399568 (3.99568%)
Longest Losing Run : 356 | 301 | 380 | 324
Average Losing Run : 24.0 | 24.05 | 24.01 | 24.03
Longest Group Losing Run : 83
Average Group Losing Run : 5.64400617627
*********************
After 10,000,000 "adventures" with 4 "players" having a 4% chance each to drop the loot the longest stretch that nothing at all dropped was 72 adventures and the average was 5.6. You can see from the individual spots that the rate is about right but their longest losing runs are a lot longer than the group... If the 4% chance were a group based thing and the reward was then randomised between the players attending the adventure, it'd make much more sense that you're not getting anywhere.
*********************
Adventures Run : 10000000
1+ Drops : 399105 (3.99105%)
No Drops : 9600895
Total Spot Drops : 399105 / 40000000 (0.9977625%)
Loot Spots : 99842 (0.99842%) | 100120 (1.0012%) | 99531 (0.99531%) | 99612 (0.99612%)
Longest Losing Run : 1071 | 1472 | 1237 | 1218
Average Losing Run : 96.16 | 95.89 | 96.46 | 96.38
Longest Group Losing Run : 362
Average Group Losing Run : 24.0560629408
*********************
So basically ten million iterations and the longest run with no drop was 362, pretty similar to the individual sets in the first and the 4% is reflected in the 1+ drops because now there's only ever one possible drop... But! That's just me fiddling about, could mean naff all in the grand scheme of things - might have missed something.
A guildmate had one (his first) HBC dropping now, so atleast that extra slot ain't fully turned off..
A guildmate had one (his first) HBC dropping now, so atleast that extra slot ain't fully turned off..
I checked out the link to the changes (http://forum.thesettlersonline.com/threads/27847-Change-Log-09-04-2014?p=254497&viewfull=1#post254497) you posted in your opening post and it contains an error.
This will lead to two possibilities:
- If you are very lucky (i.e. you get a Hospitable Bone Church), all 7 slots will be displayed in the message.
- If you didn't get a Hospitable Bone Church this time, only 6 slots will be displayed in the message.
(...)
This information should help avoid further confusion.
The image underneath then shows 5 slots with the 6th being the special drop, that's a bit confusing and as there's an error like that in the news item I'd take the official information related to it with a pinch of salt. :o
It's not an adventure I've ever done before and with a quick search I was able to find a couple of loot tables that had it listed but not one where it said the chance was specificially 4% to get that loot, very small search though. I took the 4% figure from this thread, maybe it's not actually 4%..? If whoever came up with that number was using a loot tracker like Kit_ it'd be very easy to grab a small sample of data and come up with 4%, as was shown by the 3/64*100=4.6875, even if it were something like 1% or less in reality.
Either it's not a 4% drop, my little loot drop sim script is bugged, is inappropriate or you're far more unlucky than it said any group could be after ten million adventures. :) In any case you've sort of got the answer you wanted now one has dropped, good luck on dropping your own. :)
To all:
It's funny how people are able to know things are working as intended even though they obviously have not even done a check by them selves.
The only thing needed here is ONE person that can confirm there's been a drop since the changes.
As some already has started to trolling here.. I bet not.
I'm not trolling you and I'm not insisting that things are working as intended. All I am saying is that your experience is based on anecdata and not actual proof of anything.
Let me tell you a story. Some years ago, I was in charge of support for a fairly large MMORPG. In this game there was a crafting system and when making items, it was possible for a player to make a 'masterpiece' item that could hold more bonuses than a normal item. There was a flat 2% chance of this happening per crafting attempt and these masterpieces were very much in demand so crafters would sit for hours, crafting and crafting until they got the desired masterpiece. One of the most common support requests we would get was from crafters insisting that the random quality code must be broken as they had made hundreds of items and hadn't got their masterpiece yet. Often they would back this up with logs showing their unsuccessful crafting attempts as proof that something was broken. Every time we got one of these reports we would check it out and every time we would find that everything was fine. Because probability isn't always intuitive and it's common to make wrong assumptions about how randomness works.
Your 100+ losing streak is certainly unlucky but, in a sufficiently large population it's almost guaranteed that someone, somewhere is having a long losing streak.
I'm not trolling you and I'm not insisting that things are working as intended. All I am saying is that your experience is based on anecdata and not actual proof of anything.
I've recently posted a guildmate had a HBC dropping from one of my started WWs. That's a fact. I can easily check the loot result from all of my WW's as I've been playing them just with guildmates.
[removed]
Hello SmurfAsh,
Let's keep an interesting thread interesting, and skip the accusations.
Regards,
Fexno
4.. (0.96^4=0.849..) => about 85% There won't be any HBC dropping.
The answer to my question has to be about 40 not 4 as you suggest.
The answer to my question has to be about 40 not 4 as you suggest.
While I was able to follow most of the math in this thread, your 40 has me puzzled.
While I was able to follow most of the math in this thread, your 40 has me puzzled.
I asked how many times is the random number generator invoked while doing whirlwind. Obviously it must be at least 1 for every camp attacked plus 1 for the loot. A total of about 40.
I asked how many times is the random number generator invoked while doing whirlwind. Obviously it must be at least 1 for every camp attacked plus 1 for the loot. A total of about 40.
:( Let's keep the discussion on the chance a whirlwind drops a bonechurch and what should and shouldn't be possible.
I especially like the example results Splotch gave here (http://forum.thesettlersonline.com/threads/28851-Hospitable-Bone-Church-no-longer-dropping-from-The-Whirlwind-adventure?p=263099&viewfull=1#post263099), but don't forget that the 4% is only a guess (or an estimate). I wouldn't be surprised if the actual drop chance is only about 2%
I asked how many times is the random number generator invoked while doing whirlwind. Obviously it must be at least 1 for every camp attacked plus 1 for the loot. A total of about 40.
:( Let's keep the discussion on the chance a whirlwind drops a bonechurch and what should and shouldn't be possible.
I modded the script again just to underline what Fexno has said and I agree with, we are looking at what is and isn't possible in the loot drop and factors like number of camps and random rolls make absolutely no difference unless the process isn't random. With a random number the number of rerolls doesn't change the overall results because the basic principles remain the same... It's random.
This is the original result from the previous page where each player had a single loot roll chance :
*********************
Adventures Run : 10000000
1+ Drops : 1505116 (15.05116%)
No Drops : 8494884
Total Spot Drops : 1598648 / 40000000 (3.99662%)
Loot Spots : 400042 (4.00042%) | 399240 (3.9924%) | 399798 (3.99798%) | 399568 (3.99568%)
Longest Losing Run : 356 | 301 | 380 | 324
Average Losing Run : 24.0 | 24.05 | 24.01 | 24.03
Longest Group Losing Run : 83
Average Group Losing Run : 5.64400617627
*********************
Now here's what happens when I've tweaked it to roll X number of times for the loot where X is 40, to be clear that's not 40 chances to get the loot but 40 rolls of the die and we take the last roll. :
*********************
Adventures Run : 10000000
1+ Drops : 1504962 (15.04962%)
No Drops : 8495038
Total Spot Drops : 1598352 / 40000000 (3.99588%)
Loot Spots : 398783 (3.98783%) | 400816 (4.00816%) | 398802 (3.98802%) | 399951 (3.99951%)
Longest Losing Run : 319 | 332 | 288 | 331
Average Losing Run : 24.08 | 23.95 | 24.08 | 24.0
Longest Group Losing Run : 90
Average Group Losing Run : 5.64468604523
*********************
The numbers are different but the overall picture remains the same. The only significant difference here that can't be attributed to randomness is that it took ages to run the simulation because it's doing billions of iterations instead of tens of millions... It's the only difference you should expect.
I especially like the example results Splotch gave here (http://forum.thesettlersonline.com/threads/28851-Hospitable-Bone-Church-no-longer-dropping-from-The-Whirlwind-adventure?p=263099&viewfull=1#post263099), but don't forget that the 4% is only a guess (or an estimate). I wouldn't be surprised if the actual drop chance is only about 2%
Thanks Fexno! I'm with you on this. I'd say that the 4% drop rate may have been decided on based on a small sample of data when the adventure was first released and over time it's becoming apparent that the 4% is wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 2% or lower myself either. Unless someone has looked at the code and seen the actual drop rate the only thing that these loot tables provide is a best guess.
I just had my second HBC..
And yet I still have none, so statiscally it should be my turn next, but with my luck that won't happen :D
Sharpielein
13.08.14, 15:54
And yet I still have none, so statiscally it should be my turn next, but with my luck that won't happen :D
Statistically, just because you had a dry streak of 200, the odds of getting an HBC on your next WW are still 4% :D
Statistically, just because you had a dry streak of 200, the odds of getting an HBC on your next WW are still 4% :D
And this is where people go wrong. It does not say your chances are 4%, it's says 4% of the pay outs. A subtle but very big difference.
And this is where people go wrong. It does not say your chances are 4%, it's says 4% of the pay outs. A subtle but very big difference.
But in this thread some of you've obviously failed on noticing there's been a change in the loot table (despite I linked to it).
Those "4%" are nothing but just a picked number. A loot-tracker based on manually reports (in this case 68) do not confirm it. You'll get 68 attempts from 17 WW advs. We've done 10 times that many WW advs in my guild. Most of them has been started by me - the only one having 2 HBC from WW drop.
I'm fine as long it's dropping atleast. Thou if you want a HBC, I think you'd better prepare it's not about 4% chance.
WOOHOO!!! Finally got that BC :D
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