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It seems this topic has gotten a little derailed.
If people wish to continue discussing MMA/Nus sacrifices on Dark Brotherhood (or other adventures), then it has reached the point where a new thread should be started.
As for this thread, let's get back to the original topic please.
I agree with this.Quote:
Originally Posted by neil666
Please remove CO-OP adv from the weekly
Ive had "Complete 3x Tomb Raiders" twice in a row.
and Rare Adventures I also had "Complete 3x Heart of the Wood" and according to other players that is a very rare adventure, one player told me he's lucky to complete one a year, never mind 3 in 5 days.
Why not say "Complete 3 Level 9 Adventures" or "Complete 3 Level 6 Adventures"
I'm finding the weekly tasks a bit of a mixed blessing. I don't like having to do co-ops, and I'll not waste grout on Storm Recovery. I have too many buildings to get to l.6, and taking random co-op spots from the TO has introduced me to some abrasive, ill-mannered players I'd rather not encounter again. Most of my guild friends live in different time zones, and I have a rather erratic schedule, so I cannot be sure of completing a co-op within my guild.
However, as time is limited for me, I am welcoming the chance to swap resources for xp; I may level up months before I'd expected to when xp only came from adventures. This is a real bonus.
I'm also grateful to the developers for continuing to make the game interesting, and one that can be played in many different ways.
I don't have a lot of disposable income, so don't buy many gems. I think I'm getting a lot for little outlay with Settlers.
Including Whirlwind with required 4 players is a mistake in the Weekly Challenge.
I actually found that pretty straightforward (that may change going forward). I'm much happier doing that than 3 Storm Recovery.Quote:
Originally Posted by wfar
Just got ''Do ToW x 3 times''. Been doing 2nd and 3rd thieves a lot of late and don't mind ToW so thought may as well do them. Ooops, despite all thise 2nds and 3rds I only have 1 x ToW, so despite being willing to give it a go the weekly is going to fail - that despite making and donating vast amounts of resources as a matter of course. Hmmm.
If I can remember my probabilities correctly (and not wanting to get into true probability theory where I'd have to go try to find some very old books I used to have):
The chance to get a Third Thief from Woodcutter is 1/6 (.167 or 16.7%)
The chance to get a Wisdom from Third Thief is 1/2 (.50 or 50%)
So the chance to end up with a Wisdom each time you play a Woodcutter is (1/6)(1/2) = 1/12 (one in twelve or .083 or 8.3%)
Since you need three of them, you could say that the chance to end up with 3 Wisdom starting with a Woodcutter each time is 1/12 * 1/12 * 1/12 or 1/1728 or .000578 or .058% of the time (there are other ways to express the combination but that's the simplest one). A Whopping .058% of the time.
The task to play 3 Wisdom is ridiculous compared to 3 Whirlwind or 1 Besieged city. Many people have said this. The only response so far has been defiance. I think at a minimum 3 Wisdom should be changed to 1 Wisdom if in fact that must be the adventure involved. Then there is a reasonable chance to have one in a given week.
I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for changes however.
Wisdom can also be obtained from 2nd Thief (25%)Quote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
Nice try for some math, but no, you don't remember your probabilities correctly. :) Go get your old books. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
And what is wrong with the basics? Two chances combined are products (they multiply): Third Thief from Woodcutter is 1/6. Wisdom from Third Thief is 1/2. Therefore Wisdom from Woodcutter is (1/6)*(1/2) = 1/12.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton_C
"To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities."
I'm sure about that one
I didn't consider that.... so things would get more complicated. Because Woodcutter would then lead to an OR condition of 2nd or 3rd thief, which have their chances of Wisdom.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wulfmeister
Woodcutter to 2nd = 1/6, then to Wisdom from 2nd = 1/4, so 1/24
Woodcutter to 3rd = 1/6, then to Wisdom from 3rd = 1/2 = 1/12
or
Woodcutter to either 2nd or 3rd = (1/6)+(1/6) = (2/6 or 1/3)
So then Wisdom as a result from Woodcutter should be (1/3)*(1/2) = 1/6
That is indeed better.
But it is still very hard to find 3 Wisdom adventures in a week as well as play them all. So I think that quest in particular is unreasonable. That's where my point was going.
I don't disagree with you in the slightest. Having said that, because I had them in stock I did manage to complete two ToW under a single Scout Post buff, followed by another two days later. And knowing that I had the challenge, I was able to build the required armies while completing the earlier tasks in the challenge.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
Don't want to get into an epic debate, so just brieflyQuote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
Problem is twofold:
First trying to prove anything by math without respecting correct data is ........... fill in the blanks. But you already corrected yourself in your next post saying that chances of getting ToW from chain following one YWC is actually double than you originally claimed (1 to 6 instead of 1 : 12).
Second: Your logic (use of tools) is incorrect. What you are actually calculating by your math excercise (or would have been if you had correct entry data in the first place) is a chance of any 3 YWC (simultaneous, consecutive, any .......) each giving out ToW in their follow up chain. Which isn't anything a gamer needs to know, really. (It's the probability of getting any particular sequence in the word of 3 characters picked from alphabet of 6, which is 1 to number of combinations available in that setting.)
Chances of getting 3 ToW from chain following one YWC is actually zero. No matter how many times you play one YWC chain, the only value you can get is either 0 or 1 ToW, never 3.
The actual useful information from which you confused yourself is this: You calculated the probability to be 1 to 6 meaning that in the long run you'll get ToW from every 6th YWC chain. To get 3 ToW drop probability you simply triple the amount of YWC chains needed (play 18 YWC to get 3 ToW). No place for product of 3 individual chances here as it calculates something different.
So ....... to summarise:
Chance of getting 1 ToW from 1 YWC chain is 1 to 6.
Chance of getting 3 ToW from 1 YWC chain is ZERO
Chance of getting 3 ToW from 3 consecutive YWC chains is 1 to 216 (product) (but it doesn't mean we need to play 216 YWC to get 3 ToW)
To get 3 ToW you need to play 18 YWC chains on average (triple, not product of individual chances)
As you can see the real chance is immensely higher then your original calculation suggests. If that is reasonable for the WC or not is separate question (although it would be fair to point out that we actually have minimum 4 weeks on average to get ToW needed for WC, not just one as you suggest). Here I'm only addressing your math fallacies.
Now pls don't get mad at me if you still don't understand. :) Get your books and study. :)
You are being rather condescending and I find that unnecessary, but so be it. I actually believe you are incorrect and while my analysis has flaws whether I perceive all if them or not it's clear that your's couldn't possibly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton_C
Clearly I never said that you could get 3 wisdom from 1 woodcutter. If I expressed it that way it was clearly wrong as it defies logic. I was expressing that to get 3 wisdom the minimum would be 3 woodcutter, and the odds would be very long because it requires and intermediate additional random event.
However the issue is settled as far as I am concerned. I will yield to a different way of looking at the probabilities, accept that I've forgotten more then I know, and this is not the thread for it anyway. The overall frustration by almost all players about how unrealistic it is to get 3 wisdom in any kind of reasonable time frame is consistant. If anyone is interested a thread could be open to discuss probability theory but this thread isn't the place and I shouldn't have offered such detail to begin with (as flawed as it was).
This is actually the reason why I addressed that cause bad math drives bad moods even further unnecessarily. People can get easily confused when they attempt to be too scholarly, yet simple down to earth "math" reveals that the situation is by far not as bad as some make it look. Put it this way:Quote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
With 50 % drop chance you need to play 2 x 3rd Thief to get 1 ToW on average.
With 25 % drop chance you need to play 4 x 2nd Thief or 2 x 2nd plus their LS to get 1 ToW on average.
Or you can play 1 x 3rd Thief and 1 x 2nd Thief with it's LS to get one ToW on average.
To get one 2nd and one 3rd Thief, each with 16.66 drop chance, you need to play 6 YWC on average.
As a result, to get one ToW you need to play 6 x YWC, 1 x 3rd Thief and 1 x 2nd Thief with LS, that is 8 adventures plus 1 LS on average.
To get 3 ToW you obviously need 3 times as many, which is 18 x YWC, 3 x 3rd Thief and 3 x 2nd Thief with it's LS. That is "whooping" 24 adventures + 3 LS.
Since we have 4 different challenges, provided we let each last the whole week, this one would come every fourth week on average, that would give us 4 weeks to do these 24 adventures, which would be 6 adventures a week. We could think about doing it faster or skipping it sometimes but let's keep it this basic and simple for the argument sake.
So on average, under above conditions, we'd need to do 6 specific adventures a week to be ready for our next 3 ToWs (plus those 3 ToW during one of these 4 weeks). Doesn't sound "unrealistic", or does it? :)
errrm ......... can't find "spoiler" button ?
PS: Just btw, probability is not a theory, it is well defined math discipline with precise, simple calculations, knowledge of which is used daily by big businesses to ensure their profit or safety of their data etc., for example casinos or cryptography. :)
I'm done with this on this thread. If you think that playing the 18 woodcutters just to have a probable chance of getting the 3 wisdom you need is "realistic" then we define those terms differently. I like playing other things too. And if you are doing other weekly challenges (and also if you have a life) you are forced to do other things as well so you can't devote your time to the one adventure chain (or you have more time to only play adventures than I do).Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton_C
I'm fine with your answer on the probability so asked and answered. We could never agree it appears on the definition of "realistic".
Thanks for your insights.
Oh - btw :"Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms (an axiom or postulate is a statement that is taken to be true, to serve as a premise or starting point for further reasoning and arguments)".
Different definition of what a theory is as well it appears.
Cheers
I'm with you, I can't see how anyone can think the WC are worth it even if you have the adventures to start with, but you will always find someone that will argue it isQuote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
Sadly one of my favorite times of the week now is DELETING the failed quest line. Reminds me how terrible this new "feature" is. Word of advice... if you put something that bad into the game, dont make it remind the players how terrible the effort was EVERY week with 4-5 deletions of a FAILED quest line.
I am truly at a loss as to who and why anyone thought this was a good idea and why you have not made even the slightest attempt to correct or balance it. WC is the proper acronym cause it stands for Water Closet in most countries.
Make it fun, make it enjoyable. Reminder... you are producing a GAME. It's supposed to be FUN.
sanadar
The week before last the WC quest wanted me to complete 3 "Tomb Raiders" quests - a 5-day, 4-person co-op quest. (Last week was 2x "Wild Mary" which was possible, but 3x "Tomb Raider" just isn't.)
It still seems they still aren't checking these things and, after several weeks of apparent inactivity, I'm guessing they now never will.
I'll stick to just doing the Ship bits for the easy XP if (and only if) the resource requirements are ones I have lots of and have a good supply chain; ignore the other half and then delete the "fail" at the end of the week.
Uuuummmm once you have 4 participants (and there are a LOT of offers for TR in trade) it takes about 30 mins to do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by RobD
mmm, but tombraider is very quick, easy and popularQuote:
Originally Posted by RobD
takes 20 mins to do, can easily find people to do it in trade tab
and it drops witch towers quite frequently
There are still weekly quests? Wondered what that permanent flashing red 'failed' arrow was all about.
Is nice though to feel ignored by the devs on this issue considering all of the pages of comments there would be if all of the threads were combined.
Yeah at the very least the red flashing annoyance has to go.
I thought I was gonna ignore the not worth it part and do the 2 of the 4 that are easy enough but weeks pass and I find myself only deleting the failed quests to get rid of the annoyance. So this feature is a double fail for me. Triple if you count how the TSO team handled the player response.
Ahhhh my favorite time of the week. Time to delete the water closet quests. Also reminds to post that they STILL SUCK. Appreciate the weekly reminder to post something on how i feel about the weekly quests. Big red FAILED in my quest list saying - head to forums and remind BB how horrible these dumb quests are.
Not going to repost all the dozens of reasons why they are so terrible as it has been said in may ways, many forms, and many locations.
Please fix this debacle of a game "feature". Make it fun. Make it enjoyable. Remember this is a GAME.
Thanks for listening.
san
Well Happy new year
so failed storm recovery for the second time now in 2 days 4400 grout gone and gunpowder and all the other stuff wastet plz do some thing about this .
and why are we doing those adventures everyone hates them it dosent make them better because we need to do 3. if it is for "not making it too easy" i know theres a better method id rather delever more resources or make buffs in the old provisionhouse which is always doing not anyway.
Are you doing it correctly? Wiki guide is very good and clear for example "First use the Shovel and Poison, otherwise you may make a mistake and adventure will fail."Quote:
Originally Posted by SeVeN_K
i folloved wiki guide my brother was watching it has happent twice in a row now thats why im mad wastet so much money and resourcesQuote:
Originally Posted by geezer123
Those adventures are becoming really annoying by being mandatory alone... I have two now and no less than 3 of each? I mean really...
I find my playing behaviour has changed a little regarding these quests.
First thing I have to do is go and check the wiki to see which adventures are required, I feel the adventure part should be the first stage for all of them to stop people finding they are unable to complete one after already spending resources due the the adventure requirements.
As a level 64, I have to skip Archaeological Excavation due to the amount of grout wasted on Storm Recovery.
Town Construction and Epidemic I can only start if I have enough first/second thief already in star menu.
Epidemic also requires far too many gold bars for the normal potions so I may end up skipping this one too.
I no longer do first/second thief outside of having the weekly up.
So I only end up running Kingdom Defence as running 2 whirlwind in a week isn't too bad and the rest of the requirements are not too bad either.
Knowing my luck, I will probably just keep getting Archaeological Excavation.
They have to remove any kind of adventure from these quests.
I don't mind having adventures as part of the quests.... I only think there should be a choice of adventures.Quote:
Originally Posted by tasgog
"Play X adventures of difficulty Y or higher"... something like that.
WOOT tyvm for the weekly reminder to post here..... i had to delete the water closet quests again ) so much fun. By the way .. when the report and uncheck all of my gens to be sent to an adventure 4 FOUR times it is really infuriating.
Just a reminder, this still stinks.. and stinks badly.
figure a you remind me weekly by making me deleted FAILED QUESTs and making me re-send generals to addy FOUR times, i will let you know how upset many players still are about how pathetic these things are....
again please re-balance, make them fun, and invest your dev hours into something that actually makes the game better.. not more irritating.
sanadar
Or it should be the last. Then you can get the xp for the "easy" parts if you want to.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kotugo
What adventure is required should be in the subquest description under the main quest.
I wonder if anyone in tech is actually taking note of how many people are just clicking the " you failed weekly quest " nice RED bin button.
It is my favourite thing now..... just click red bin button EVERY week.
I just can not get the adventures and refuse to give up TWICE the amount of resources we have to produce.
It is a shame as it was a good idea to give people regular quests with xp.
I bet they justifies it with..Quote:
Originally Posted by Teardrop46
For me, resources and adventures are no problem, but this being forced - when and if to start a WC should be initiated by the player.Quote:
Originally Posted by BB_Alex
I know its a while since the quote was posted but there are a few things that I find makes Storm much easier to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeVeN_K
i) Follow the eu wiki guide precisely
ii) When applying buffs do not click on the ruin/rock - hover over it until the selector opens showing you the buff options and then click on the one you want to apply
iii) Be very careful when making/owning stinky potion/decomposer buffs. Part of the quest is to own 11 of each, if you apply some before all 11 are built then you can fail the quest.
It is. Just let failed quest in you quest book and if you wanna start another WC, delete it :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by SmurfAsH
I like the chance to enjoy this game, it has got me hooked for over 6 years. But if a challenge is too difficult I give it a go but if it means losing a lot of gc or my resources getting too low, then skip a few challenges and do them another week. i think you all should just cool down and relax - its only a game.
That's not an option, as those failed quests will be prompting constantly and questbook trying to refresh repeatedly - not that playable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shugura
Woot Delete Day)) Thanks for the reminder to everyone regarding failed/unused/unfun content!
sanadar