A new thread by BB to compile a list of currently undesirable adventures or problems

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Originally Posted by Rhylian

@Ozzymandeus :https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...er=false&gid=5

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Impossible to judge accuracy of information without some indication of its source. (See Edit)

Plus, I also have to view the accuracy of the percentages with some suspicion when they can't even get Wild Mary's name right. ;)

Given that, if the figures for Witch Tower drops from that list is right then whoever at BB decided that RB should have a higher chance of dropping a WT than DB needs their coffee spiked with something that might actually wake them up to the point they can think sensibly!

EDIT: Apologies.... I didn't explore your second link fully at first. I see now the source of that table is a fan site.

As the thread you link states, "Still, as always with any numbers and new info, grain of salt until gameplay confirms.", and the kind of percentages we are talking about for drops of items like the Witch Tower really do require a massive sample size for any level of accuracy (short of BB actually officially releasing the information, of course).

Yes but do read the sentence before the one you quoted too. The one about them having been rather accurate in the past.

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Originally Posted by Rhylian

Yes but do read the sentence before the one you quoted too. The one about them having been rather accurate in the past.

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I did. However, the fan site that compiled that data is written in German, which I don't read, so I have no idea of the sample sizes involved to produce that data. It is therefore impossible for me to make any sort of judgement as to the potential accuracy of small percentages like the drops for buildings such as the Witch Tower. So... I continue to take them with a grain of salt.

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Originally Posted by Ozzymandeus

Impossible to judge accuracy of information without some indication of its source. (See Edit)

Plus, I also have to view the accuracy of the percentages with some suspicion when they can't even get Wild Mary's name right. ;)

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Yes, how can someone who's not a native English Speaker possibly do correct mathematical calculations?
That automatically discredits them, so we're back to Square 1.

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Originally Posted by Sharpielein

Yes, how can someone who's not a native English Speaker possibly do correct mathematical calculations?
That automatically discredits them, so we're back to Square 1.

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You pick up on a little joke (note the smiley) and completely ignore the serious point that has nothing to do with the list producers ability to calculate a percentage and everything to do with the basic principle of statistical probability that the smaller the likelihood of an occurrence the greater the sample size that is required to accurately quantify it.

That spreadsheet lists the DB drop rate for the Witch Tower as 0.45%. The number of iterations required to render that degree of statistical analysis numbers well into the thousands, if not tens of thousands. So, unless some kind German speaker can translate the portion of the original site that indicates their sample size(s), I have to assume that level of analysis has not been performed, especially in light of how unpopular the adventure seems to be in most circles and the relatively short space of time since the loot was changed.

And just to be clear, I am not trying to discredit the entire spreadsheet. For larger percentages, such as how often Granite/ExoWood/TitOre/Salt drops, smaller sample sizes can render reasonably accurate information with little margin of error.

The soultion to this loot thing is simple:

allow us to skill our generals so we can be selective with what loot we get.

I only adventure for Gold refills as i need nothing else, the drops have become rubbish now so i might as well not adventure.


Also bring back IOTP.

Re: Dark Brotherhood

People are stuck in a mindset of presuming cavalry are expensive - horses, brew and settlers are all dropping in abundance from adventure loots. The only 'cost' that keeps cavalry being cannon fodder now is time - and skunks are free with collectibles and myers with lucky fatties.

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Originally Posted by Ozzymandeus

You pick up on a little joke (note the smiley)

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Well maybe I should have added one as well then :D

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That spreadsheet lists the DB drop rate for the Witch Tower as 0.45%. The number of iterations required to render that degree of statistical analysis numbers well into the thousands, if not tens of thousands.

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While in principle I would agree with you, the fact that it's listed as "0.45%", even if it's just #Events/#Samples, implies that it's well over 200 samples and the mere fact that it seems that it's possible to do 200 DB without a single Witch Tower drop renders the drop as "practically nonexistant", as the relative value of a Witch Tower contributes a mere 200 coins (or less) to the value for practical reasons. One might as well evade to other adventures with a higher average ROI and resort to buying other styles of settler residence over doing DB. Yes.
WT's are (slightly) more effective than Magnificient Residences, but that is only a concern for those who are too rich to have island space, richer than being able to afford MR's, but too poor to afford Frozen Manors.
Aside from that, I have calculated if the odds given on that site are accurate, one has to do an average of 4000(!) Nords Adventures for 1 Frozen Manor, effectively discontinuing that item.

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And just to be clear, I am not trying to discredit the entire spreadsheet. For larger percentages, such as how often Granite/ExoWood/TitOre/Salt drops, smaller sample sizes can render reasonably accurate information with little margin of error.

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There is another possibility which is highly accurate, and that is disseminating server messages.
I'm not sure it is still possible, but in the past, loot probabilities were extracted rather than calculated.