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It seems this topic has gotten a little derailed.
If people wish to continue discussing MMA/Nus sacrifices on Dark Brotherhood (or other adventures), then it has reached the point where a new thread should be started.
As for this thread, let's get back to the original topic please.
I agree with this.Quote:
Originally Posted by neil666
Please remove CO-OP adv from the weekly
Ive had "Complete 3x Tomb Raiders" twice in a row.
and Rare Adventures I also had "Complete 3x Heart of the Wood" and according to other players that is a very rare adventure, one player told me he's lucky to complete one a year, never mind 3 in 5 days.
Why not say "Complete 3 Level 9 Adventures" or "Complete 3 Level 6 Adventures"
I'm finding the weekly tasks a bit of a mixed blessing. I don't like having to do co-ops, and I'll not waste grout on Storm Recovery. I have too many buildings to get to l.6, and taking random co-op spots from the TO has introduced me to some abrasive, ill-mannered players I'd rather not encounter again. Most of my guild friends live in different time zones, and I have a rather erratic schedule, so I cannot be sure of completing a co-op within my guild.
However, as time is limited for me, I am welcoming the chance to swap resources for xp; I may level up months before I'd expected to when xp only came from adventures. This is a real bonus.
I'm also grateful to the developers for continuing to make the game interesting, and one that can be played in many different ways.
I don't have a lot of disposable income, so don't buy many gems. I think I'm getting a lot for little outlay with Settlers.
Including Whirlwind with required 4 players is a mistake in the Weekly Challenge.
I actually found that pretty straightforward (that may change going forward). I'm much happier doing that than 3 Storm Recovery.Quote:
Originally Posted by wfar
Just got ''Do ToW x 3 times''. Been doing 2nd and 3rd thieves a lot of late and don't mind ToW so thought may as well do them. Ooops, despite all thise 2nds and 3rds I only have 1 x ToW, so despite being willing to give it a go the weekly is going to fail - that despite making and donating vast amounts of resources as a matter of course. Hmmm.
If I can remember my probabilities correctly (and not wanting to get into true probability theory where I'd have to go try to find some very old books I used to have):
The chance to get a Third Thief from Woodcutter is 1/6 (.167 or 16.7%)
The chance to get a Wisdom from Third Thief is 1/2 (.50 or 50%)
So the chance to end up with a Wisdom each time you play a Woodcutter is (1/6)(1/2) = 1/12 (one in twelve or .083 or 8.3%)
Since you need three of them, you could say that the chance to end up with 3 Wisdom starting with a Woodcutter each time is 1/12 * 1/12 * 1/12 or 1/1728 or .000578 or .058% of the time (there are other ways to express the combination but that's the simplest one). A Whopping .058% of the time.
The task to play 3 Wisdom is ridiculous compared to 3 Whirlwind or 1 Besieged city. Many people have said this. The only response so far has been defiance. I think at a minimum 3 Wisdom should be changed to 1 Wisdom if in fact that must be the adventure involved. Then there is a reasonable chance to have one in a given week.
I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for changes however.
Wisdom can also be obtained from 2nd Thief (25%)Quote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
Nice try for some math, but no, you don't remember your probabilities correctly. :) Go get your old books. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Xibor
And what is wrong with the basics? Two chances combined are products (they multiply): Third Thief from Woodcutter is 1/6. Wisdom from Third Thief is 1/2. Therefore Wisdom from Woodcutter is (1/6)*(1/2) = 1/12.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton_C
"To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities."
I'm sure about that one