Unbalanced Market Prices

Hi to all,

before getting to the main point, I need to congratulate to Settlers team about Trading System idea... It's very easy and clearly to trade!

However as the title says there are some issues about prices... By my oppinion the root of unbalanced prices are not only the uninformed or scrooge type players, then in how expensive buildings upgrade is or how much raw materials for production is needed...

Let see example:

Fir wood cutter is Basic building, but for upgrading to level 2 you need Hardwood Planks and 100 Marble... as we go further into the market, we will notice how common resource Pine Wood is priceless... This is just because you need Level 3 (Advanced) materials to upgrade instead Level 2 (Intermediate) like Copper Mines do... Tools! So, we have Pine Wood shortage...

Let's have in mind how Pine Wood is fundamental for many Intermediate Production Buildings, what leads automatically to higher prices of many more advanced semi and final products.

Example:
Pine Wood is ultimatelly high in comparison with level 2 Water... ratio is about 100 Pine Wood for even 300 Water... or 100 Pine Wood for 50 - 100 Marble (regular price if we calculate time production should be 500 Pine Wood = 100 Marble)

Also we have another type of non-proportion where for 1 Iron you need to invest 4 Iron Ore and 6 Coal -> (this is also produced from overpriced Pine Wood)... so when you compare 1 Bronze sword and 1 Iron Sword about same shape and size, Iron Sword price is rocket high, nobody wants to buy it... only solution you need to wait your own production...

The trade tab is player driven. So the prices there are what people are willing to pay for it (otherwise they would go down). If you think it's too high, you can make an lower offer in the hopes that someone accepts it. But if they don't, then your idea of a fair price does not seem to be the same for other's (-: Just because the prices is high does not mean no one wants to buy it.

To take your example of the swords, a bronze sword only needs 1 copper ore and 3 coal. A iron sword needs 6 iron ore and 18 coal. So even if you ignore the fact that copper ore is cheaper to get than iron ore, you still need 6 times as much resources to make it. Wich means the prices should be at least 6 times as high.

It's all about supply and demand. Depends on various things, like time of day ie. No. of players online, current quests etc. I often put the same trades up are are sometime inundated with offers and other times not a single offer even if I drastically reduce the price.
I t also depends how desperate you are for the item, if you need it in a hurry you may be willing to pay more for it.
If you don't think the trade is worth it, simply don't do the trade and put your own trade up at what you think is a reasonable price.

This is not a bug therefor not suppose to be in bug section.

Moved it to general discussion.

Energyman hits again :D. Maybe you should make a ton of pine wood and trade for it on the market ;)

Yes,you hit a high note in what is known as players not knowing economy that well,or hoping that one could get 400 gold coins for 1 fish.
Relating to your "we need pine wood issue", high level players use coal mines and the newly implemented Recycling Factory. It will take some time until people realize that pinewood is not that needed.
Bare in mind that there are players ranging from 10 to 50 or so years old, so not everyone will handle economy well :)

I enjoyed reading your post, it was very thorough. :)

This tread should give us some lead to help stabilize the market... This way its perfect for me because I know what pairs of material are wanted so its no problem to earn on a price difference. But it is still unfair to non-economist players, so they should at least get chance for a fair trading and of course save them from ridiculous offers they making... so here is the proposition:

By the time GM should implement average price index (API) just next to material before you make trade, so the players knows global market stand.

API should be based on next parameters:

Time of production (expressed in production seconds also PrS)
Cost of the material building (if we are talking about mines)
Demand of the players (how many units of materials was send in the past 24 hours)

Example for Copper Ore and Water pair:

Copper Ore needs:

Time of production = 224 PrS

Building mine
30 pine wood planks = 30 * (244 PrS + pine wood 126 PrS) = (30 * 370 PrS) = 11100 PrS
45 stones = (45 * 336 PrS) = 15120 PrS
Total for Building = 26220 PrS / 710 ore in the mine vein = 37 PrS per 1 ore

Total for Copper Ore = 224 PrS (production) + 37 PrS (building) = 261 PrS per Copper Ore unit


Water needs:

Time of production = 200 PrS

Building Water Well:
30 pine wood planks = 10 * (244 PrS + pine wood 126 PrS) = (10 * 370 PrS) = 3700 PrS
45 stones = (15 * 336 PrS) = 5040 PrS
Total for Building = 8740 PrS / 1000 water unit in the well deep = 9 PrS per 1 water bucket

Total for Water Bucket = 200 PrS (production) + 9 PrS (building) = 209 PrS per Water Bucket

Now we have pair: Copper 261 / Water 209 = Time Price Index (TPI): 1,2488


And lets assume Copper Ore demand in the last 24 hours 390.000 units and Water 130.500 units... or Demand Price Index (DPI)...

So formula is 390.000 / 130.500 = 2,9885


And final formula for API is:

API = (TPI + DPI) / 2 = 4,237 / 2 = 2,118

Since API = 2,118 conclusion is how fair price for Cooper Ore 2,118 Buckets of Water!

Now everybody have clear perspective what to produce, trade and use...

some nice math there, but i guess there is some problems.. you say 1 cooper ore = 2118 buckets of water ? if so, i cna offer you 1000 cooper ore for 10k water...

API = 2 Buckets of Water POINT 118... My mistake instead of dot I have used comma...

API = 2.118

my head hurts..... but after taking ages trying to figure out what you said i agree with you... but there are problems with it

trade prices will fall down fast if people progress in the game further, untill then you will have people asking the weirdest prices. nothing that can be done about it, not even a topic like this because in a week the prices are different again.

All liquid markets auto-balances themselves. The problem is that at some parts of the day there isn't much trading going on, this unbalances the prices. One can value the commodities in time and labour etc as much as you want, but in the end the only thing that matters is if you someone is willing to pay asked price. One can say that either you wait forever for someone to buy your overpriced goods or you underprice and win the time difference. So, more traders = balanced prices.

Yea +1, more traders and more trades will balance it much faster... (if everyone could do 3 trades in same time, it would help a lot)

I love the current free market. People may set their prices according to what their resources if of value to them and sometimes you find an amazing offer and sometimes you must pay your fair share to get a much desired resource.

Why would you try to control the market?

...and sometimes people need to wake up to what's realistic - today's bargain offers
want=300 iron swords - offfer=1 xmas present
want=200 longbows - offfer=400 stones

and people offering marble for stones / hardwood for pine at twice the cost it takes in the resource house ???

Its all a case of supply and demand,if someone wants an item badly they will pay,its a matter of keeping an eye on Trade and thinking ahead,buy things cheaply you know you will need later

Liked Energyman's posts. Really well thought out and blinds everybody with maths. He would make a good banker . . .

Alas this market and every market in the world is not driven by true related costs, but by what prices people will pay and will afford. Thus in ripoff Britain goods are priced in gbp, often the same as US$, and everybody forgets it ignores their higher disposable incomes and the exchange rate difference . . .

Similarly in our market here. Some will be asset rich in some goods, others asset poor, so people will trade how they feel fit, or not trade at all. Similarly, some will offer small quantities for trade, asking for small amounts in return, potentially opening up their market to a larger number of potential buyers - many cannot afford to swap 400 for 400 but are happy for 1 for 20 or 20 for 20 as it allows them to progress say in an upgrade, a new build etc.

So the sumary - if it appears too expensive, don't buy, if you think it's a fair deal and you want to daeal, then deal and finally that not all people want want to deal in large quantities all the time - sometimes selling small quantities for small amounts can actually give higher returns and more flexibility and make more people happier!

Thinking of selling 20 for 200, try 1 for 15 instead etc.

yep, small batches at reasonable prices normally result in multiple offers, if it's the right time of day for people to be online

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sir_SnackAttack

I love the current free market. People may set their prices according to what their resources if of value to them and sometimes you find an amazing offer and sometimes you must pay your fair share to get a much desired resource.

Why would you try to control the market?

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No, no... Average Price Index (API) is not design to control market by fixed INDEX price... No, no... Just to monitor Current Average Ratio and idea is you can see it just next to amount of material you want to trade...

Also, it would be great if GM can make Time Price Index (TPI) in the way they SUM all production building time and make average one...

Example (Lets assume next 3 players are whole game copper producers):

Player 1 for Copper has average production time = 212 PrS
Player 2 for Copper has average production time = 242 PrS
Player 3 for Copper has average production time = 200 PrS

Total production time or Time Price Index (TPI) = (212 + 242 + 200) / 3 = 218 PrS and this is base you calculate API...

So if you want to buy Cooper and you are in the hurry you will have opportunity to see Average price of copper and then you decide how much you will deviate on your expense from the Average Price Index...

This hole idea is to help people with trading not to control them!!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Energyman

No, no... Average Price Index (API) is not design to control market by fixed INDEX price... No, no... Just to monitor Current Average Ratio and idea is you can see it just next to amount of material you want to trade...

Also, it would be great if GM can make Time Price Index (TPI) in the way they SUM all production building time and make average one...

Example (Lets assume next 3 players are whole game copper producers):

Player 1 for Copper has average production time = 212 PrS
Player 2 for Copper has average production time = 242 PrS
Player 3 for Copper has average production time = 200 PrS

Total production time or Time Price Index (TPI) = (212 + 242 + 200) / 3 = 218 PrS and this is base you calculate API...

So if you want to buy Cooper and you are in the hurry you will have opportunity to see Average price of copper and then you decide how much you will deviate on your expense from the Average Price Index...

This hole idea is to help people with trading not to control them!!!

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I dislike your idea. The game is set in the days where no TIP or API were available, as we know it today, to monitor the "market". It was a free market with feets deep planted in supply/demand. I like looking through the trades to find myself a very nice offer due to a players hastened need for a certain resource.

What you wish to do contradicts how trading was done in the timezone we "play" in. Let the market be free and run on the inituation of the individual player and how he values his resources against others.

Despite the detailed economic analysis demonstrated above, no model of standard pricing will be able to develop if trade offers continue to expire after 10 minutes. If trade offers would stay up for let's say 48 hours, then we would see a real economy develop, as rival traders would begin to undercut each other on the resources that they are trying to sell.

But the price also depends of the individual player... I might be willing to pay a premium to the price because I really need a resource... To another it might be less worth... Also some are less patient, they might also have different reservation prices... :)

Tbh I like how it is now, it requires thought and patience.

The only things I would like to see changed are able to put more trades up like someone else suggested.

Along with active market times increased.

I personally keep track of all my transactions in notepad along with times to see how prices change depending on off-peak and peak times during the day, manage to get some good deals that way. :P

It's a player driven market, so any argument you have about prices, should be aimed at the players and not at the admin staff.
As the server matures, the prices will stabalise.

prices are what the market will bear...end of.

I think that there ought to be an option to place more than one lot of goods on the market at any one time, perhaps at some extra cost...maybe building an extra branch office?

If an offer hasn't been accepted by the end of 10 minutes the goods should be returned to the vendor...tbh this is such a no-brainer that it might be more properly be described as a 'bug that needs fixing

I doubt that prices will stabilize because there are always dynamics...at least I hope not.

Yes I agree the market is always supply and demand. Goods valuable to you may not be to someone and vice versa. What I don't like it the 10 minutes time span. I think a hour time span would be more acceptable. This way we do not have to scan the market or set up your trade every 10 minutes

I find 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1 gets me what i want and what i want rid off

a longer time-span will certainly lower the average prices. since players can bid against each other, but you will still have players who want to exploit the market function to a maximum.
you can also use the knowledge above, and go produce soms valuable trade resources, for example fir wood trees. this however requiers a good look on the market...

are you trying to manipulate the market? u can't manipulate the market

energyman the price should be determined by the supply and demand as people have different preferences, and not by the time it takes to produce. Water is absolutely nothing worth for me as I have plenty of production, no matter what price you might come up with... No instead we need a recording of accepted transactions and graphs of the relative prices where we can see how they change over time... We could even make an index with gold as the base, so gold is worth 100 and all others are relative to that. so suppy and demand should determine the fair price and not production time...