Lootspot percentages

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10.09.12 21:28
BlackieIsHere

Lootspot percentages

During the last 3-5 days (so that was about 8 Adventure's) I have did or bought lootspots. I would like to know the percentages of getting a decoration?? If it's still 5-10% then I would kindly like a refund of the lootspots I have done, because in 8 attempts the chances of getting 5 or 6 decorations seems rather unorthodox (BK, Nords, RB and DB).

At first it's funny thinking you are extremely unlucky, but then once it happens 3/4s of the time you start too wonder if you are really unlucky or the chances of getting decroations has increased too about 30-50%... Could I be able to have some clarification on this please. :)
11.09.12 18:24
Nogbad

Search the forum, SidV posted these up. Think there may still be a link to the post in his "Adventure Guide"
12.09.12 15:12
itsmegavin

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackieIsHere

During the last 3-5 days (so that was about 8 Adventure's) I have did or bought lootspots. I would like to know the percentages of getting a decoration?? If it's still 5-10% then I would kindly like a refund of the lootspots I have done, because in 8 attempts the chances of getting 5 or 6 decorations seems rather unorthodox (BK, Nords, RB and DB).

At first it's funny thinking you are extremely unlucky, but then once it happens 3/4s of the time you start too wonder if you are really unlucky or the chances of getting decroations has increased too about 30-50%... Could I be able to have some clarification on this please. :)

I have to kind of agree with you here because if BB look at my account history to date, I have done well over 40 stealing from the riches and not once got a castle yet, I have done around 20 Black knights and again had no castle yet and also done two dark brotherhoods and again had no castles so now it seems to be becoming a joke in my opinion that I never have a look in when most of my friends have done these adventures alot less and got the castles etc so now I am starting to lose faith totally.

One of my friends actually got the castle on there first Black knights lootspot and then again got another on there 4th attempt and theres me with not one castle to show for all these adventures.

Also all I seem to get is saltpeter rather than any granite/ewl and even titanium ore so again it seems rather unfair.

So yes I totally agree that these % payouts seem rather unfair as 40 attempts at an adventure which gives 3.8% chance should have dropped something by now.
And Black knights has a better % and I have still had no luck whatsoever. I look at some others islands and they actually have 4-5 dark castles and when I speak to them they have only done the adventure about the same amount as me.

So am I just extremely unlucky or is my account in some way blocked from recieving some of these goodies as its getting to the point where I am thinking of just giving up.

Thanks and hope we can get something sorted here.

Another quick thing is everyone I speak to report that they hardly get granite from any adventures anymore when it has the same & chance as saltpeter/ewl etc but we all never seem to get much of it so how is this, it cant be coincidence that we are alll struggling for the same thing ?
Same with xbows, I used to get a fair amount of it in random loot and now I struggle to get it all, and most of the time I get dama swords which are kind of the booby prize wouldnt you say.
12.09.12 16:47
naikou

you guys need to learn basic math. history has nothing to do with probabilities. each loot is individual lottery.
12.09.12 21:32
Trishanku

I have the impression the player falls into a loop and keeps getting the same item. For example, this also happens with the explorers' searches. There was a time my Explorers only came back with Witches of the Swamp. I then stopped sending them on adventures. When I started sending them again, all are now coming back with map fragments!
The same happens with loots: There was a time I was getting only Granite. Now it is only Titanium Ore..... I have seen persistence in patterns enough times to conclude that the algorithm sends you in a loop.
12.09.12 21:44
BlackieIsHere

Quote:

Originally Posted by naikou

you guys need to learn basic math. history has nothing to do with probabilities. each loot is individual lottery.

So if the chances of getting a decoration is 5-10% and you do 8 adventures, what is the probability of getting 5-6? I tend too agree with Trishanku that the server falls into a loop around your account...
13.09.12 01:22
zButcher

If the item has 5% drop ratio, and there is 5 items in that slot your odds of getting 5% is 19:1 or 1:19 whichever is the less lol.

However, you cannot calculate agains how many adventures you have done, because odds are per adventure.

Therefore, even if you do 1000 adventures you might never get it despite 52 possible chances (or get it each time for all 1000 adventures).
13.09.12 11:30
Tage

Quote:

Originally Posted by zButcher

However, you cannot calculate agains how many adventures you have done, because odds are per adventure.

Of course you can calculate that. :)

It's a question of combinations (and their percentual chances)... C(n,r) = n!/r!(n-r)!
If the chance to find a decoration is 5%, then the chance of not finding a decoration is 95%.

Let's list them from top down:

The chance to find exactly 0 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,0) × 5%^0 × 95%^8 = 1 × 1 × 66.342% = 16,983,563,041/25,600,000,000 = 66.34204%

The chance to find exactly 1 decoration on 8 tries is:
C(8,1) × 5%^1 × 95%^7 = 8 × 1/20 × 69.833% = 7,150,973,912/25,600,000,000 = 27.93349%

The chance to find exactly 2 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,2) × 5%^2 × 95%^6 = 28 × 1/400 × 73.509% = 1,317,284,668/25,600,000,000 = 5.14564%

The chance to find exactly 3 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,3) × 5%^3 × 95%^5 = 56 × 1/8000 × 77.378% = 138,661,544/25,600,000,000 = 0.54165%

The chance to find exactly 4 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,4) × 5%^4 × 95%^4 = 70 × 1/160000 × 81.451% = 9,122,470/25,600,000,000 = 0.03563%

The chance to find exactly 5 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,5) × 5%^5 × 95%^3 = 56 × 1/3200000 × 85.738% = 384,104/25,600,000,000 = 0.00150%

The chance to find exactly 6 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,6) × 5%^6 × 95%^2 = 28 × 1/64000000 × 90.25% = 10,108/25,600,000,000 = 0.00004%

The chance to find exactly 7 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,7) × 5%^7 × 95%^1 = 8 × 1/1280000000 × 95% = 152/25,600,000,000

The chance to find exactly 8 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,8) × 5%^8 × 95%^0 = 1 × 1/25600000000 × 1 = 1/25,600,000,000

The chance to find 5 (or more) decorations on 8 tries would be:
(384,104 + 10,108 + 152 + 1)/25,600,000,000 = 394,365/25,600,000,000 = 0,00154%

...or about one chance in 64,914.
13.09.12 12:39
Trishanku

Exactly!
13.09.12 22:18
BlackieIsHere

.... and here I am getting 5 or 6 from 8 tries, and it's near impossible not unlucky, which is why I agree that there is a loop in the game :)

Thank you Tage for that also :) Probability works on everything (:
13.09.12 23:36
BamBamBam

If you guys truly believe that there is a loop counter embedded in the loots then maybe you should mix and match what adventures you do.. go for the less popular advs, if theres truly a loop then it would most likely be a daily quota for the day for each adv on how much they drop.. and as granite is the most sought after i would guess the quota is lower for it on each adv.

This my own personal reason to not to do the same adventure over and over..

(funnily enough i get nice loot on such adventures like traitors or witch etc.. and eveyone complains that thier loot is bad when theyve spammed BK like 100 times)

To sum up id say you arent just playing the odds in each adventure you do but with everyone else who is doing that adventure that day as to how good your loot is.
14.09.12 23:44
zButcher

Nice math, I couldn't go that far :) But the problem is that even if the chance is 0.00154 of getting it, the chance or "luck" might even not work even then.

Same as national lottery, there is higher chance of finding same ammount of money before winning it. Even tho if you try for the first time, you could win. It's all about right time and right place, hitting that odd timing. Everything can be calculated by math, but "luck" still exist even in most complicated math eq.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tage

Of course you can calculate that. :)

It's a question of combinations (and their percentual chances)... C(n,r) = n!/r!(n-r)!
If the chance to find a decoration is 5%, then the chance of not finding a decoration is 95%.

Let's list them from top down:

The chance to find exactly 0 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,0) × 5%^0 × 95%^8 = 1 × 1 × 66.342% = 16,983,563,041/25,600,000,000 = 66.34204%

The chance to find exactly 1 decoration on 8 tries is:
C(8,1) × 5%^1 × 95%^7 = 8 × 1/20 × 69.833% = 7,150,973,912/25,600,000,000 = 27.93349%

The chance to find exactly 2 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,2) × 5%^2 × 95%^6 = 28 × 1/400 × 73.509% = 1,317,284,668/25,600,000,000 = 5.14564%

The chance to find exactly 3 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,3) × 5%^3 × 95%^5 = 56 × 1/8000 × 77.378% = 138,661,544/25,600,000,000 = 0.54165%

The chance to find exactly 4 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,4) × 5%^4 × 95%^4 = 70 × 1/160000 × 81.451% = 9,122,470/25,600,000,000 = 0.03563%

The chance to find exactly 5 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,5) × 5%^5 × 95%^3 = 56 × 1/3200000 × 85.738% = 384,104/25,600,000,000 = 0.00150%

The chance to find exactly 6 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,6) × 5%^6 × 95%^2 = 28 × 1/64000000 × 90.25% = 10,108/25,600,000,000 = 0.00004%

The chance to find exactly 7 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,7) × 5%^7 × 95%^1 = 8 × 1/1280000000 × 95% = 152/25,600,000,000

The chance to find exactly 8 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,8) × 5%^8 × 95%^0 = 1 × 1/25600000000 × 1 = 1/25,600,000,000

The chance to find 5 (or more) decorations on 8 tries would be:
(384,104 + 10,108 + 152 + 1)/25,600,000,000 = 394,365/25,600,000,000 = 0,00154%

...or about one chance in 64,914.