Adventure search results - post your stats

So, to begin with: the purpose of this stats gathering is to confirm that the earlier information of adventure search results is still correct and nothing has changed. That part is actually pretty much done. But now we're gathering more data to make sure there's no difference between explorers and savage scouts. Why? Because so far it seems there might be.

- Which type of scout (regular explorer or savage scout)
- Which type of search: Short (24h), Medium (36h) or Long (48h)
- How many searches you've conducted
- How many times you got map fragments
- What adventures did you find


Short Adventure Search:

Regular explorer:
Boro: 183 tries, 152x Map Fragments, 12x Pirates, 4x WotS, 2x DP, 5x Traitors, 6x Horseback, 3x SftR, 1x Outlaws, 1x EotW
Herpyderp: 58 tries, 45x Map Fragments, 1x Pirates, 3x WotS, 1x DP, 2x Traitors, 3x Horsebabck, 3x SftR
(17.8% success)

Savage Scout:
Morgy: 11 tries, 6x Map Fragments, 2x Wots, 1x Traitors, 2x Horseback
Dragavox: 10 tries, 6x Map Fragments, 3x WotS, 1x Traitors
(42.9% success)

Mixed results (older data where regular explorers and savage scouts weren't separated)
Morgy: 25 tries, 19x Map Fragments, 2x Pirates, 2x DP, 1x Traitors, 1x SftR (these are mostly SS)
AllyJay: 16 tries, 14x Map Fragments, 1x WotS, 1x DP (unknown)

Total: 19.9% (expected value 24.1%)

Medium Adventure Search

Regular explorer
Herpyderp: 36 tries, 24x Map Fragments, 2x SftR, 1x Traitors, 1x SotV, 6x Outlaws, 2x Nords
(33.3% success)

i dont think it have changed to be honest i still seem to get like 2/3 adventures evry 14 serches i do random ofcorse

Shouldn't take a lot of data to prove that and silence the recent complaints. I consider it extremely unlikely that there's been a change, but no gut feeling is going to convince anyone to change their mind either way. So, statistics.

oki i got in 14 exsplorers to day 11 of them 2 times i got 3 adventures furst time and 5 second time so thats 8 and 17 map fragments

Quote:

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Originally Posted by morgy321

oki i got in 14 exsplorers to day 11 of them 2 times i got 3 adventures furst time and 5 second time so thats 8 and 17 map fragments

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Won't do much good without knowing what length of searches those were and which gave what result, since the expected % is different.

hum makeing it complicated now i like it
well to night i had 3 out of 14 1 of a slow one and 2 of fast ones got 1 traitors of the slow one and 2 pirates of the fast ones

i dont rememebr what i got this morning but i try let you know to morrow

Quote:

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Originally Posted by morgy321

well to night i had 3 out of 14 1 of a slow one and 2 of fast ones got 1 traitors of the slow one and 2 pirates of the fast ones

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So basically for you, the following... adding to original post.
14x Short search: 11x Map Fragments, 2x Pirates, 1x Traitors

More data in. Slowly getting closer to the expected ratio.

16 short searches = 42 map pieces, 1 witches and 1 dark priests, adventures came both at once on the 15th and 16th searches

this morning i got back 11 fast exsplorers they got me 2 witch 2 horseback 1 traitors rest mf

Almost 100 searches later the results are starting to get reliable. Some just are luckier than others. And most are luckier than me.

well i do get on average 3 maps evry time they come home from 11 and 14 serches i would be able to tell you that long time sure i do get more some times and less some times but 70% of the time i get 3

Just me having awful luck. Or maybe the Savage Scout has better odds at finding stuff. I'll keep adding the numbers, maybe my luck turns.

well from my exsperience they seem to get the same only since they only do hafe the amount it might seem like they harderly bring back some

My 10 savage scouts just came home after the short adventure search.

I got 3X Witch of the swamp and 1X Traitors, 18 map fragments

So far the difference between regular explorers and savage scouts appears, frankly, to be huge. But need lot more data to confirm either way.

These searches are from may to june ish. after that I stopped updating.

Short
45 lots of frags
1 IOP
3 SFTR
3 Horseback
3 WOTS
1 DP
2 Traitors

total 58 searches

Medium
24 sets of frags
2 SFTR
1 Traitors
1 SOTV
6 Outlaws
2 Nords

Total 36.

I didn't have any savage or easter scouts at the time.

I stopped recording because I found this: http://www.siedlertools.de/wiki/Entdecker which has the given percentages at the bottom.You'd need a huge sample to say if there was a difference between savage and normal scouts and even then, without an official word from a dev I'd still put any variation down to chance. Surely if there was a bias towards savage scouts it would be advertised? and what about the easter event explorers. Where do they fit into this?

EDIT: Another thought, I think savage scouts would be more likely to be sent on medium/long hunts as opposed to the short ones (33% chance vs 25%). That might go some of the way to explain the difference.

I've trusted that same list as well, but started gathering new data just to confirm it. And I was quite happy with the findings, until I noticed the massive gap between explorers and savage scouts. It's most likely just odd luck. Few hundred searches with both would give pretty good accuracy though. At least good enough to see if there's something as huge as double chance with SS.

I reckon it'll even out if you get some more data from savage scouts but I gotta admit, that's a big gap. I managed to get a couple of scouts from vouchers and I wouldn't say my luck has improved much but then, bar a string of 5 nords in a couple of weeks! That's anecdotal evidence though. You never know :)

I'm past first 100 searches with regular explorers, so far my success ratio is 12.4%. The often referred expected value is twice that much, 24.1%. So either i'm monumentally unlucky continuously over 100 searches, or that 24.1% isn't quite right. Now I know I usually have awful luck when it comes to RNG, so I'll continue gathering data from hundreds more tries. I still suspect Savage Scout may be the key to that 24.1% figure. If anyone else has results in significant numbers recorded with regular explorers and savage scouts separated, please post here.

3 normal explorers on medium searches have brought me 4 adventures in 40 days . thats 90 searches with 4 successes. a veld an outlaws a horseback and a traitors . i forget the dates as i have just begun to sob everytime one gets back now , is my luck a record?? lol

86x map frags . 1x outlaws . 1x sons of the veld . 1x horseback . 1x traitors .

Firstly: your effort is commendable and misplaced.

The assumption is that success rate is reported into a third party location which is not bounding in any way. Consequently, any findings will not yield any reaction. But if you want to play with wiki, who am I to deny you that.

I have ran the following tests: 2 geologist + 1 fast (egg) on norhtisle, side by side with 4 + 2 (gem) on test - to keep the same ratio, during July-August.
This returned 3-4 searches a day as I wasn't always tied to the game at 12h intervals. I kept screenshots of the mails.
NI 17.07 0/8
NI 19.07 0/8
NI 22.07 1/6
NI 24.07 2/7
NI 26.07 2/6
NI 28.07 0/6
NI 30.07 1/6
NI 01.08 2/7
NI 04.08 1/8
62 searches, 9 adventures found. 14% success rate. stunning!

TSO 17.07 6/8
TSO 18.07 1/8
TSO 19.07 1/8
TSO 20.07 4/8
TSO 21.07 4/8
TSO 22.07 2/8
TSO 23.07 5/8
TSO 25.07 5/10
66 searches, 28 adventures found. 42% success rate.

For those that pay attention and know how some of test version worked: I tricked the game by emptying the tavern of its 3 geologists prior from the game offering its first or cashing the experience and gems. That is why I had 4.

Prove me wrong, make a difference.