return to bandits nest drop rate

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21.05.14 11:58
ATHTHEMANIAC

return to bandits nest drop rate

over the past 2-3 weeks i been doing bandits nest adventure...out of the 60 i have done i only got 11 rtbn's the post i have read about all say the drop rate is 30% but 11/60 = 18%..which is just over half of what have been posted :( ...have they nerfed the drop rate of this follow up adventure because of the books that drop in it ?

i am dreading doing rtbn now cause if they have nerfed the drop rate of rtbn then i suspect they also have nerfed the drop rate of books and all the time and resources will now be wasted :(
21.05.14 12:56
Bluesavanah

I'd say the drop rate is about 20%-25%, but it seems patchy my wife got 3 in a row. It's all just luck I guess.
23.05.14 21:27
Tripi

I would guess that the drop rate is the standard 23.3% like Swampy -> OldFriends and Pirates -> MotherlyLove

I tend to buy ten at a time in Merchant and have done all those before and got absolutely none. Other times I have done the ten and got three or four.

Hopefully you will do better with the next sixty :)
24.05.14 13:24
MutantKid

I recently played 15 Rbn's in a row on a 1 day premium, (my 3rd run so far) and this was a disaster, 9 tomes, 24 manu's, so from a possibility of 30 loots I only had 11 drop books, was more annoyed that I didn't get any codex as my 2 other runs produced at least 6 in each.

Whether the drops have changed or not who knows. (I did a run of 21 normal Bn's and that produced 8 Rbn's)
29.05.14 06:25
Duong_TonThat

i bought 50 bandit nest, after complete them, i got 11 rtbn,

Sometime i get 3 in the row, other time i got none

% is very difference from player to player , BB is not announcing %. Wat u heard from the post is base on the player drop rate, ur drop rate maybe different

I believe it varies from 15%-30% drop rate. if ur drop rate is 18% mean u r not lucky compare to other player

My is 20% drop rate.
15.02.15 12:05
DrVonGooner

I have now done 60 BN in a row without a single RTBN. That makes a drop rate of 0%..... Ridiculous.
15.02.15 16:05
Sharpielein

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duong_TonThat

i bought 50 bandit nest, after complete them, i got 11 rtbn,

Sometime i get 3 in the row, other time i got none

% is very difference from player to player , BB is not announcing %. Wat u heard from the post is base on the player drop rate, ur drop rate maybe different

I believe it varies from 15%-30% drop rate. if ur drop rate is 18% mean u r not lucky compare to other player

My is 20% drop rate.

You haven't done enough of them to say something statistically meaningful.

"I went outside yesterday and today, yesterday it rained, today sun shines, so for me the chance of rain is 50%" ... naww ... it's neither something related to you personally nor is the sample size adequate.

I have done probably around 200 BN and got about 10 RBN. Some sites claim that the drop rate is 4.6%, so I'm slightly above average.
You may be significantly above average, but do a couple thousand more and tell us your findings.

It would take over 10k adventures to tell with at least a 95% certainty whether the claim of 4.6% is accurate or not.

I crunched some numbers for you:
* If 4.6% were the "true value", after 50 adventures, you could be 95% certain that it should be somewhere between 0% and 11%.
* If 4.6% were the "true value", it takes 1000 adventures to determine with 95% certainty whether the drop rate is above or below 6%.
* Given a 20% observation over 50 adventures, you can be 99% certain that the drop rate is somewhere between 4% and 35%.

That said, statistically, your observation is still within the range of "normal", and proves/disproves nothing.
16.02.15 12:44
LordBosse

After the lootnerfdate I get about 1 RttBN in 20-30 BN, before I got 2-4 RttBN from 4-6 BN, so yes they nerfed the dropratio very badly.
02.03.15 01:44
Xibor

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sharpielein

You haven't done enough of them to say something statistically meaningful.

Exactly Sharpielein. I've seen a lot of posts about "drop rates" and it's clear to me that many people simply do not understand probabilities. Having a 10% chance does NOT mean that if I do 100 attempts I will have 10. It means each time you try, there is a 10% chance. It doesn't matter if you have done a thousand, the next time the chance is 10%. And will never be more than at 10% chance, no matter how many times you try. I know it seems 'natural' to think something like "I've tried this 1000 times so I MUST be due for one" - that simply isn't true. It's still another 10% chance.

As the sample reaches infinity you will have the approximate rate that you expect.
19.03.15 02:18
Bluesavanah

Beginning to think it's statistically more probable you'd get run over by an aeroplane than getting a follow up adventure.
19.03.15 04:40
Ozzymandeus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluesavanah

Beginning to think it's statistically more probable you'd get run over by an aeroplane than getting a follow up adventure.

I was beginning to think something similar, until an RBN dropped for me a few hours ago. :)
19.03.15 13:21
corona88

i know 1 player who play only 1 Bn and he got rtbn 100% drop :)
for good statistic you must play at least 500 bandit nest

what we can say then for nords 2?
only 0.4% drop chance = 250 nords to get 1
19.03.15 16:19
LordBosse

The likelyhood of getting run over by an aeroplane is greater than getting a RttBN :D
19.03.15 17:46
Dorotheus

How hard is it for people to grasp that a 10% drop rate does not mean you will get it 10% of the time.
19.03.15 19:28
LordBosse

Well all know that mate, it is just that after 30-40 BN you should at least have gotten 1 Rttbn, and besides the drop ratio is 5,6% and not 10%.
19.03.15 22:56
Dorotheus

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordBosse

Well all know that mate, it is just that after 30-40 BN you should at least have gotten 1 Rttbn, and besides the drop ratio is 5,6% and not 10%.

The laws of probability say nothing of the sort. The drop rate could be 99.9999% yet after 3000 even there is nothing to say you would have gotten 1.
19.03.15 23:47
LordBosse

Not getting into this but my aeroplane comment was meant as a joke, too bad you failed to see it.
20.03.15 03:30
Bluesavanah

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dorotheus

How hard is it for people to grasp that a 10% drop rate does not mean you will get it 10% of the time.

it's not hard to grasp, but it doesn't make it right it went from roughly 1 in 6 adventures to virtually never. Statistically BB should by now have enough data from all the servers to see the droprate has been cut to far.
20.03.15 09:09
topgearfan

maybe its time to start treating it like a bug and send bug reports?
27.03.15 19:00
Duong_TonThat

Quote:

Originally Posted by corona88

i know 1 player who play only 1 Bn and he got rtbn 100% drop :)
for good statistic you must play at least 500 bandit nest

what we can say then for nords 2?
only 0.4% drop chance = 250 nords to get 1

0.4% not equal to 250nord/1. Every time you do it only have 0.4chance of drop it, mean almost impossible. but i believe it 1.5% drop from the nord

Example, a long time ago, chance drop white castle from steal from the rich is about 1.5% or less. I remember i doing more than 200-300 include buying and swap loot. NOT a single one drop, but my friend did first time and got it.

Same as winning jack pot or any gamble. chance is not add up
28.03.15 06:09
MerlinXII

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dorotheus

The laws of probability say nothing of the sort. The drop rate could be 99.9999% yet after 3000 even there is nothing to say you would have gotten 1.

If this is how your percentage is applied then the formula you using is wrong.. A good formula should bring up close to the intended percentage drop rate. If lets look at a claimed 10% drop rate... I do 10 adv it is NOT unrealistic to expect that i should get at least a return on 1 adv... if i do 100 then at least 10 adv must bring a return... I cannot do 30 and get nothing. Then the formula is OBVIOUSLY not working and needs tweaking. Math is math and not luck.. if your drop rate is out of proportion the the formula needs tweaking... simple math...
28.03.15 06:20
Seamus1

Quote:

Originally Posted by MerlinXII

If this is how your percentage is applied then the formula you using is wrong.. A good formula should bring up close to the intended percentage drop rate. If lets look at a claimed 10% drop rate... I do 10 adv it is NOT unrealistic to expect that i should get at least a return on 1 adv... if i do 100 then at least 10 adv must bring a return... I cannot do 30 and get nothing. Then the formula is OBVIOUSLY not working and needs tweaking. Math is math and not luck.. if your drop rate is out of proportion the the formula needs tweaking... simple math...

The drop-rate of loot does indeed go per adventure.
You have a chance of ....% each time you play 1 adventure to get ..... item.
28.03.15 12:21
Ozzymandeus

Quote:

Originally Posted by MerlinXII

Math is math and not luck.. if your drop rate is out of proportion the the formula needs tweaking... simple math...

What we are dealing with here is probability statistics... not basic math.

Probability is luck... and it has no memory... simple fact...
28.03.15 12:41
fishslice

Further to the above - I recently did 2 Bandit Nest adventures back to back and got RtBN in both. That was just good fortune. I have previously done 40 back to back and had nothing. That was being unlucky.
Both of the above are likely scenarios when dealing with probability.
28.03.15 13:37
topgearfan

150 adventures that drop follow-up adventures completed this event. 2 follow-up adventures dropped.
I understand making building drops rare but what is the point in making some adventures extinct?
28.03.15 13:42
MCLueppers

I got 2 RttBN from just 20 BNs. Does it mean my drop rate is 1/10? Of course not. I was just too lucky...
28.03.15 16:31
Bluesavanah

I know how to cure my frustrations trying to get a RtBN put them in the Epic part of the merchant for say 2000 sc and a weekly cooldown
17.05.15 11:12
Korbun

I just try 10 Bandit nest adventures....I got 2 RTBN adventures...Next week will do another x10 run and will se what happend
17.05.15 20:54
Xibor

From what I've found, the follow-up adventures chance is 2.0%. This means you won't find them very often. And see my previous most about odds. So many people don't understand probabilities - no matter what the rate is (except for 0.0% or 100%) you are not guaranteed anything - no matter how many times you try. You can flip a coin 100 times and there is a chance you will never get heads.
27.05.15 19:52
Korbun

Another 10 BN - 0 RTBN for me:(
09.06.15 07:45
JJahorn

Seems to me though that ALL the follow-up adventures went from something like 20% chance to 1-3% chance when the loots were changed.

A question is why does BB want them to be so rare?
09.06.15 20:45
Xibor

To make them more precious? To make the 'play two follow-up adventures' something to be proud and excited about? Because some things shouldn't be easy or else they don't have as much value and things get boring?