finding an ali baba adventure...

what are the odds of finding an ali baba by adventuring ..i don't have any of my explorers who do adventure searches so this is the only way apart from buying in trade (which with the greed on my server is goner be sky high) of getting to do any of the new content as your cant buy it for map frags....
ali has a drop chance from hlt/blt adventures is info i have atm...so
doing vlt (bought with map frags)...i got a 8% chance of getting a solt/clt...then i got a 13% chance of getting a hlt/blt this gives me an unknown % chance of getting the 1st ali baba adventure ??..
with the way things are looking i doubt i will even play an ali baba adventure before i get to level 75....have bb really thought this through?

until a significant amount of people pass 56 you not going to get any reliable figures, I could be cynical here and say those getting past 56 first have better odds because it would seem adjustments to loot drops are a constant work in progress, many are saying the drop chance on mini adventures were adjusted in last maintenance but cannot be proven it could just be there more people doing ft.

Bit silly starting this thread tbh you can probably buy the first adventure in the next guild market so you should of at least waited until the result comes in.

Ft you can play from lvl 42, but actually not worth to play before lvl 48.
similar is with ali baba yes you can play from lvl 51, but to worth to play before lvl 57.

on lvl 56 you unlock adventure search for ali baba.

no problem here with drop ratio

why no reliable figures until people are level 56?... players are doing hlt/blt now so they should be getting ali's in their loot now surely..? this in turn can be used to work out the % drop chances..

not sure why silly just trying to ascertain the future prospects of playing the new adventures....

if they do appear in guild shop...i cant see me having enough guild coins to buy more then 1 or 2....why unlike vlt which is the start of the tailor chain bb has decided to make the new adventure chains explorer searches/loot only ?. (i can only presume they want to control the numbers in circulation as they can and probably do alter % chances every maint)

"on lvl 56 you unlock adventure search for ali baba."..the whole point of this post was that i do not have any explorers who do adventure searches or i should of said are booked up to do adventure searches.

Even a Explorer with the wrong or no books is going to increase your chances of getting one than not sending one out.

As for the idea that BB are constantly tweaking drops well I've no idea where that has come from. All tweaks have been announced in the change logs though like last November or when new adventures are introduced.

Presumably as more data is obtained by players a estimated drop rate will be posted somewhere, either here or on the many websites.

the idea that bb "tweak" drops as u put it and how i put it altering % drop rates is clearly seen if u do enough adventures....i do 6 rb everyday for months now hunting WT's for pop growth....over these weeks and months i have seen a steady increase in the number of times meat has drop in all 3 loot slots....and an increase in the drops of exo would.....no you could argue that its just bad rng...but that would mean bad rng over many many weeks which is probably so unlikely it can be discounted..
but this is another issue and not one i am discussing here tbh....

my explorers are all booked up for and only do rainbow/treasure searches which is why i don't have any one adventure search and the whole basis for this thread in the 1st place :)

sorry, but you chose to use them all for rainbow/treasure search and then say you have no options and refuse to send them on adventure search ?
it's your problem really, BB gave your explorers the ability to find adventures, use it

I have played several hlt/blt searching for an alibaba adv. No drops out of 10 so far, It looks like the same percentage drop as an RBN from BN.

I've had 1 ali baba from about 10 FT loot, interestingly the alibaba I got was from the first FT I did after the changes I think, none since.

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Originally Posted by ATHTHEMANIAC

the idea that bb "tweak" drops as u put it and how i put it altering % drop rates is clearly seen if u do enough adventures....i do 6 rb everyday for months now hunting WT's for pop growth....over these weeks and months i have seen a steady increase in the number of times meat has drop in all 3 loot slots....and an increase in the drops of exo would.....no you could argue that its just bad rng...but that would mean bad rng over many many weeks which is probably so unlikely it can be discounted..
but this is another issue and not one i am discussing here tbh....

my explorers are all booked up for and only do rainbow/treasure searches which is why i don't have any one adventure search and the whole basis for this thread in the 1st place :)

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No point arguing, I've tried it for years and my message has just not sunk in to the collective player-base. All I can say is my observations do not match yours, which is what I would expect and in fact I would find it mighty iffy if they did in fact match.

I had 1 Alibaba from 1 hlt over the weekend, so 100% rate for me :)

Don't know what the chances of finding them are, but I got one in loot from a ls, I think it was from a BLT or HLT but could have been one of the other tailor ls.

But as with chances of finding them, I don't have a clue what the chance are here either.

Edit: also my suggestion if you got all your explorers primed for Rainbows and you don't want to send them on adventure searches, then sell Rainbow buffs and buy Ali Baba adventures.

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..but that would mean bad rng over many many weeks which is probably so unlikely it can be discounted..
but this is another issue and not one i am discussing here tbh....

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Not really, your way below the amount of RBs played that make the law of large number applicable, you could just be unlucky, also be advised that ad hoc observations tends to be tainted by expectations and exadurations, so if you want to use observations for anything, then use recorded observations, don't rely on how you think it is.

If you're focusing on the tons of meat you get in, then you'll be likely to put extra emphasis on the times when that happens.

I used to think that surely the game was screwing me over on artefact searches, and that I didn't get anywhere neer the amount of rainbows I should have gotten, then I started to record, and while it still felt like I never got any Rainbows, my recorded data showed that I did indeed get 9,32% of the searches, which was roughly the avr drop rate then, so I was neither being particulary lucky or unlucky.

Actual data, not feelings.

Record, meat vs gold vs gold refills etc. and come back in 6 months with the numbers, then you'll have done more than a thousand (1098) where you actually recorded the content, and have a sample size significant enough to make a statement with about 95% accuracy as to if the meat drops have changed or not.

Of course you could also write BB and ask, don't know if they'll answer but you could try

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Originally Posted by Dorotheus

As for the idea that BB are constantly tweaking drops well I've no idea where that has come from. All tweaks have been announced in the change logs though like last November or when new adventures are introduced.

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Not true. Eg, they lowered the Bonechurch droprate in WW, but did only announced about lot changes in the loot.

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Originally Posted by SmurfAsH

Not true. Eg, they lowered the Bonechurch droprate in WW, but did only announced about lot changes in the loot.

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I had heard about that but the story I had got was it was part of the Nerfember changes which had gone un-noticed until a few months ago due to co-ops no longer being so popular.