Even with just a 3% chance, this really seems to be pushing the bounds of "how random is random?".
As most people probably know, my quest to earn a White Castle (Barbie House) from SFTR continues, and yesterday I completed my 440th attempt at the adventure, and got yet another iron refill. 0/440 really is starting to look like a bug, on average I might have collected 13 of these by now, but still yet to score a single one.
This might just be appalling luck, if a couple of other factors didn't also feature:
Since the grotty update last November, we didn't just start to import bugs from the Test Server that were routinely ignored, but the loot drops from adventures and Explorer finds show a clear bias to E/Wood over Granite. Over 7 times more likely to get the former, is it any surprise that back then granite was trading close to 1gc per unit, now the Trade prices are considerably more?
Also the Guild Quests, continually get stuck in the same old rut. It used to be Isle of Pirates, over and over again, now it is "experience 2 new adventures" 2/3 times or more.
Considering there were supposedly 200 new Guild Quests added, what happened to the other 199?
The whole thing seems to get stuck when there's supposed to be a choice, instead of a random event, it appears more like some factor is sticking, much like a cached page.