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Thread: Possibility of finding eggs by explorer on different searches - all counted.

  1. #1
    Pathfinder
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    Nov 2011
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    Newfoundland

    Post Possibility of finding eggs by explorer on different searches - all counted.

    Searching for eggs by: German data* analysed using mathematical expected value

    Fast search - 6h (LAST PLACE): 1 = 6%, 2 = 20%, 4 = 10%, no = 64%
    0,06+0,4+0,4+0=0,86 egg per search
    0,86/6h=0,14(3) per hour ~= 3,44 eggs per day

    Medium search - 12h (2nd PLACE): 1 = 14%, 2= 24%, 4 = 28%, no = 34%
    0,14+0,48+1,12+0=1,74 eps
    1,74/12h=0,145 /h ~= 3,48 eggs per day

    Long search - 24h (3rd PLACE): 2 = 37%, 4 = 56%, 7 = 7%
    0,74+2,24+0,49=3,47 eps
    3,47/24h=0,14458(3) /h ~= 3,47 eggs per day

    Very long search - 48h (BEST): 7 = 100%
    7 eps
    7/48h=0,1458(3) /h ~= 3,5 eggs per day

    Those are average values you might expect.
    As we see there is not big difference between best and second place and even smaller between 2nd and 3rd, nevertheless we have only few explorers and cannot do hundreds of searches to give theory of probability do all work
    so searches with possibility of no eggs at all (6h and 12h) are even less profitable for us.
    And beside having better expected value and no risk of getting nothing, longer searches needs less effort.

    And one more conclusion: if this event will last three weeks (!) then we have 21days x 3,5 eggs = 73,5 eggs in three weeks...

    *http://siedler-vision.de/das-osterevent/
    Last edited by Nostradamus; 12.04.12 at 18:28.

  2. #2
    Nifty
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    60
    World
    Newfoundland
    400 eggs from Quests + 73 from explorer = absolutely no chance for Veteran

    nice event...

  3. #3
    Pathfinder
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
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    7
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    Newfoundland
    You can also use trade, i will try to collect remaining eggs.

  4. #4
    Pathfinder
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
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    World
    Newfoundland
    Quote Originally Posted by Qrok View Post
    400 eggs from Quests + 73 from explorer = absolutely no chance for Veteran

    nice event...
    Veterans can only be gained by HEAVY trading. Which i think is lame.

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