Lootspot percentages

[BamBamBam]

If you guys truly believe that there is a loop counter embedded in the loots then maybe you should mix and match what adventures you do.. go for the less popular advs, if theres truly a loop then it would most likely be a daily quota for the day for each adv on how much they drop.. and as granite is the most sought after i would guess the quota is lower for it on each adv.

This my own personal reason to not to do the same adventure over and over..

(funnily enough i get nice loot on such adventures like traitors or witch etc.. and eveyone complains that thier loot is bad when theyve spammed BK like 100 times)

To sum up id say you arent just playing the odds in each adventure you do but with everyone else who is doing that adventure that day as to how good your loot is.

[zButcher]

Nice math, I couldn't go that far But the problem is that even if the chance is 0.00154 of getting it, the chance or "luck" might even not work even then.

Same as national lottery, there is higher chance of finding same ammount of money before winning it. Even tho if you try for the first time, you could win. It's all about right time and right place, hitting that odd timing. Everything can be calculated by math, but "luck" still exist even in most complicated math eq.

Of course you can calculate that.

It's a question of combinations (and their percentual chances)... C(n,r) = n!/r!(n-r)!
If the chance to find a decoration is 5%, then the chance of not finding a decoration is 95%.


Let's list them from top down:

The chance to find exactly 0 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,0) × 5%^0 × 95%^8 = 1 × 1 × 66.342% = 16,983,563,041/25,600,000,000 = 66.34204%

The chance to find exactly 1 decoration on 8 tries is:
C(8,1) × 5%^1 × 95%^7 = 8 × 1/20 × 69.833% = 7,150,973,912/25,600,000,000 = 27.93349%

The chance to find exactly 2 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,2) × 5%^2 × 95%^6 = 28 × 1/400 × 73.509% = 1,317,284,668/25,600,000,000 = 5.14564%

The chance to find exactly 3 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,3) × 5%^3 × 95%^5 = 56 × 1/8000 × 77.378% = 138,661,544/25,600,000,000 = 0.54165%

The chance to find exactly 4 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,4) × 5%^4 × 95%^4 = 70 × 1/160000 × 81.451% = 9,122,470/25,600,000,000 = 0.03563%

The chance to find exactly 5 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,5) × 5%^5 × 95%^3 = 56 × 1/3200000 × 85.738% = 384,104/25,600,000,000 = 0.00150%

The chance to find exactly 6 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,6) × 5%^6 × 95%^2 = 28 × 1/64000000 × 90.25% = 10,108/25,600,000,000 = 0.00004%

The chance to find exactly 7 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,7) × 5%^7 × 95%^1 = 8 × 1/1280000000 × 95% = 152/25,600,000,000

The chance to find exactly 8 decorations on 8 tries is:
C(8,8) × 5%^8 × 95%^0 = 1 × 1/25600000000 × 1 = 1/25,600,000,000


The chance to find 5 (or more) decorations on 8 tries would be:
(384,104 + 10,108 + 152 + 1)/25,600,000,000 = 394,365/25,600,000,000 = 0,00154%

...or about one chance in 64,914.