Four Winds Quest

[BobLurker]

You're reading it wrong Bob.

The change you get granite the 3rd time is 67%
The change you get granite in 3 tries is .67^3 = 29%

That's what the list says. The adventures dont have a memory, so every time you have the same old chance. But of course the chance you find granite eventually changes. The chance you find granite with 1 try is not the same as the chance you find granite in 100 tries.

It doesn't work like that - the probability zeroes on every try precisely because, as you point out, the adventure has no memory. There's no change in the probability because there's no link between the adventures. Calculating the odds on falling to find granite 10 times in a row would be a far more complicated equation that considered far more than the stated drop rate - we don't know the precise details of how the code allocates rewards and even the drop rates are open to question.

This is why I said about probabilities being a nightmare. Many people have lost fortunes in casinos thinking that it's impossible or even hugely unlikely for red or black to come up 10 times in a row. At best the list is misleading because it suggests there is an increase in likelihood of getting granite on each try, when there isn't.

[Promethos]

if the drop-rate doesn't change after a couple of failures, or with level (and as far as I know, that's not the case)... that's all that matters. What else do you want to include, the price of crude oil or the weatherforecast?

The list states the chance you still havent found granite after x-searches, when you start with 0 searches. Workd fine, it's really not a complicated formula at all.

Take the coin. Now how big is the chance you get side B 3x in a row? Yup .50^3 = 12.5%
throw it 100 times. That gives you (statistically) 50 * B as first throw
From those 50 throws half of them give a B the 2nd time -> 25
from those 25 throws half of them gives B agin -> 12.5

Ooh see, 0.50^3 =12.5%

[BobLurker]

if the drop-rate doesn't change after a couple of failures, or with level (and as far as I know, that's not the case)... that's all that matters. What else do you want to include, the price of crude oil or the weatherforecast?

The list states the chance you still havent found granite after x-searches, when you start with 0 searches. Workd fine, it's really not a complicated formula at all.

Take the coin. Now how big is the chance you get side B 3x in a row? Yup .50^3 = 12.5%
throw it 100 times. That gives you (statistically) 50 * B as first throw
From those 50 throws half of them give a B the 2nd time -> 25
from those 25 throws half of them gives B agin -> 12.5

Ooh see, 0.50^3 =12.5%

I think we're just debating presentation here - as it was presented, the list gives the impression that the more times you try the adventure the greater your chances of success.

As for the drop rate - do you know how the coding decides what rewards to drop? We've been given these percentages, but where did they come from? I'm not saying they are wrong, but as you'll well know it only takes a small change in these numbers (or the method of choosing drop rewards) to completely alter the results.

(Just to be clear, I'm not questioning your maths at all, just the way this list was potentially giving false hope to those who might have failed many times already.)

[TheRook21]

BobLurker,

Giving false hope is creating a quest chain to get a watermill and gems when you complete it but then making it so some quests require luck to complete and then setting a two week time limit...

bandits number 2 gave me titanium ore
lets see what bandits number 3 brings...

[Snorf]

Great Qwests loved them

Droprates can be a pain but we all knew that wenn we started this chain and been lookking in to given info wich was easy to find on forum. There's people in guild who didnt started as they assumed they would not be able to finish last adv. granite drop qwest. Others bite the bullit and Play Surprise attack several times not such a problem wenn you team up and lev50ies team up with a non 50lev theres nice exp to gain.

Nice work BB keep us going and give us moar of this great rewards and great guild bonding mini events

[Antilochus]

(Just to be clear, I'm not questioning your maths at all, just the way this list was potentially giving false hope to those who might have failed many times already.)

Hmm the list is factually correct. If people misread it as false hope well... as your example suggests, the same people will misread it in the casinos. So it's probably a good thing that they're learning about it here than at the betting tables I'll edit it with a disclaimer.

Edit: Actually yes, I can see how the wording I used could have been misleading. I've changed it

[TheRook21]

Great Qwests loved them

Droprates can be a pain but we all knew that wenn we started this chain and been lookking in to given info wich was easy to find on forum. There's people in guild who didnt started as they assumed they would not be able to finish last adv. granite drop qwest. Others bite the bullit and Play Surprise attack several times not such a problem wenn you team up and lev50ies team up with a non 50lev theres nice exp to gain.

Nice work BB keep us going and give us moar of this great rewards and great guild bonding mini events

the level 36-45 quest chain involves getting granite from single player adventures, I'd buy loot spots if they were two player to increase my chances of hitting granite.

[Antilochus]

On another note, I just finished the questline Level 40 but I was lucky to get granite on my second bandit's nest.

[Bambo_0cha]

....I just finished the questline .....I was lucky to get granite....

Same here, 3x Motherly Love 1x Suprise Attack

[HEF2012]

I am startin to think that settlers is trying to rip us off........ done this stupid adv bandits nest 7 times and no granite just exo logs..... i dont think its possible to get granite... then again out of the last 2 months at doing about 3 adv's a day... i have only gotten granite twice and thast it......