Where have all the adventures gone?

[MrBranch]

Wow, a 0,16% chance for Sons of the Veld...and I keep finding it (sorry, KEPT finding it).

[Nogbad]

Iolanthe, yes it has to be the most impressively awful record ever (unless of course someone can better it!)
In case someone doesn't know the record so far:
437 SFTRs to date - no Castle.
Nearly all solos, couple off LS swaps just to see if that could buck the trend.

[Drunken_Abbott]

lol ive gotten 5 or 6 castles from probably less than that amount of SFTRs, the search returns are pathetic though, after striking 13 blanks on long adv search at least 6 months ago, i havent searched for an adventure since, its just too expensive so I buy em all. now we have science tree I will specialize 1 explorer for adv searching, but he aint going back on it til fully trained.


does any one know the current odds for finding different adventures?

[Dorotheus]

Asking for the odds is pointless. Any player generated table of results is just a historical record of the results obtained by those generating the table. The tables posted by players on the various severs/fan sites do not include the sort of information which allows us judge how valid those tables are. Therefore any prediction has to be taken with a large dose of salt.

[Saraptheold]

I used to get at least 1 adventure out of the three, occasionally 2 and very rarely 3.

I used to get 1 out of 12. Lately I've been getting 2 and on a few occasions 3 out of 16, so for me it's actually better for me. But I see that I can get more for map fregments too, so maybe overall, people are finding less adventures.

437 SFTRs to date - no Castle.

I used to hunt that elusive castle too. My record is not as impressive as yours, but if it was determined by maths alone I should have had quite a few. I have none. Now I don't really want them anymore other than as throphies in my star menu. If I ever get one I'm never selling it.

[Dorotheus]

I used to get 1 out of 12. Lately I've been getting 2 and on a few occasions 3 out of 16, so for me it's actually better for me. But I see that I can get more for map fregments too, so maybe overall, people are finding less adventures.



I used to hunt that elusive castle too. My record is not as impressive as yours, but if it was determined by maths alone I should have had quite a few. I have none. Now I don't really want them anymore other than as throphies in my star menu. If I ever get one I'm never selling it.

If you think the maths say you should have had quite a few you are either applying the wrong maths or have failed to understand the implications of the right maths.

[Saraptheold]

If you think the maths say you should have had quite a few you are either applying the wrong maths or have failed to understand the implications of the right maths.

It's strange how you can say that when you don't know how many times I've done SFTR. You only know that it's less than 437 times. I know the results of probabilty calculations are not absolute. That is why I said maths alone. I know that it is just as possible that I would have ended up with hundreds as none, but it's not as likely to happen. Would you please care to explain how I am wrong about the maths again? Is it no probablity what so ever that I should have had a few? As far as I know there's a 3% chance to get it and I haven't heard any other numbers. BB certainly won't neither confirm nor deny that number.

I'll just assume that you misunderstood my last post.

[Nogbad]

442 now, still trying.

[Saraptheold]

I raise my glass of brew in salute to our grumpy-looking easter bunny as he keeps chasing that rainbow. May both you and I find that useless pot of gold that is the white castle one day. Though what we really should be chasing is that even more elusive witch tower.

[Dorotheus]

It's strange how you can say that when you don't know how many times I've done SFTR. You only know that it's less than 437 times. I know the results of probabilty calculations are not absolute. That is why I said maths alone. I know that it is just as possible that I would have ended up with hundreds as none, but it's not as likely to happen. Would you please care to explain how I am wrong about the maths again? Is it no probablity what so ever that I should have had a few? As far as I know there's a 3% chance to get it and I haven't heard any other numbers. BB certainly won't neither confirm nor deny that number.

I'll just assume that you misunderstood my last post.

I do understand your post. What you fail to understand is that the 3% is hearsay, if this was a court of law it would not be admissible as evidence. Unless you understand how computers generate random numbers you are not in a position to produce a compelling argument, if you do understand then you know that given how the random numbers are being used means that any player generated percentages are absolutely worthless.