Fast Cpper Mines

[stonewaller]

Thanks for your replies Cephalad (and EctoRune), I have a rudimentary understanding of Statitsics having a Diploma in mathematics, seemingly others do not My post was out of interest as something I felt I had observed empirically but had no sound evidence for, and wondered if anyone else had looked into it substantively (to save me the effort). Anyway I continue to collect the data!

For conspiracy theorists, or anyone interested...
My sample is still too small... but now 71 searches...
now 26 out of 71 which as with the original post is still around 37%... (although last week it was a record 10/23=43% ... acceptable ) again for the fewer coal searches it is 12 out of 27 (44%, was 45%).

Looking forward to a run of 8 fast to bring it to an even keel.

on the karma front my 2.5 (I added one midweek) explorers recently returned 3 nords in 8 days, and ages ago my first ever sftr yielded a white castle. I guess my skiving improved Jolly Geologist is just payback.

[Brankovics]

The term "you have X% chance for E(vent)" does not mean that X% of E is in between all thing what has happened. It says just E is among all thing what can happen, and its rate to all that thing is X%. In short, your 45% chance to find fast mines does not mean that 45% of mines found by you, must be fast. It means amongst the all of the mines you will find anytime in the near and far future, there will be 45% fast in sum. Because statistically not so big the chance for "very-very long" series by one element, the smaller samples will show something similar, but nowhere a parameter in above phrase, how big can be the differences... For example, when I got this skill, the first few days serches (perhaps 20-25?) found only 5-7 slow copper mines. Nowadays looks inversely, but I don't make such statistics.

[ddakka]

I would think you would need a very large sample size to indicate whether its 45% or not. When I send mine out searching, I generally get a trend of 5-6 in a row of slow ones. Then I get 5-6 fast ones. I search and keep fast ones. Slow ones I destroy. In some cases I get more slow, but then it's usually followed by more fast ones.

At any rate, as far as I can tell it feels like its right, but I still think a large sample size is needed to actually determine if there is an issue or not.

[Splotch]

In short, your 45% chance to find fast mines does not mean that 45% of mines found by you, must be fast.

^ This.