I got 5 christmas trees in a row earlier so that's not just really bad luck but the percentages being changed before this went live. Some friends had similar 'luck'
Christmas trees are one of the reasonably likely drops. Getting 5 in a row isn't *that* unlikely.
I'm sorry Peajay, but 5 christmas trees in a row ain't nothing but just really bad luck. I had similiar streaks of bad luck on testserver so no change here. You need to open a lot more boxes to determine there's really been a change. I've opened about 20 here on liveserver and I'm not disappointed about the outcome.
i bought 107 boxes so reasonable to base a % on i got of worth anyway
18 pirate residences
19 frozen manors
3 dark castles
1 white castle
1 witch tower
12 arctic mines
14 christmas trees
2 improved storehouse
rest was made up of pavillions rabbids and angel monuments plus 1 flower bed
If the chance to get a xmas three is 16% then 5 in a row is not even close to bad luck. Unfortunately for youOriginally Posted by Peajay
You need several thousand samples before you get a statistically significant result.
A sample of around 50 should give a statistically significant result. not an accurate percentage, but enough to rule 16% drop rate as either true or false.If the chance to get a xmas three is 16% then 5 in a row is not even close to bad luck. Unfortunately for you
You need several thousand samples before you get a statistically significant result.
Example: opening 50 boxes without a single xmas tree - probability of 0.84^50= 0.0002 - thus statistically the 16% drop rate has been shown false with less than 0.1% error margin!
You would need thousands only to find the exact percentage (like if it's 16% or 17%). Hundreds will do fine in determining a reliable interval (like 15-20%) and even less when only testing for a certain percentage value (as above).
With regard to Peajay's post, 5 tries is indeed too few to rule out luck. Especially when there are hundreds if not thousands of players attempting this. ONE of them is bound to have exceptionally bad luck. If you throw heads and tails long enough, you are bound to reach a long streak of only heads or only tails at some point. The coin's odds of landing heads or tails did not magically change - random outcomes always include variation. If you throw a die 6 times, it's more likely that you get some number twice rather than getting exactly 1,2,3,4,5,6 - one of each.
32 rabbits and 24 pavilions AAARRRGGGHHH!
And what about some lottery?
130 MA
24 pirate residence 18.4%
27 raving rabbit 20.7%
20 christmas tree 15.3%
20 frozen manor 15.3%
18 arctic iron mine 13.8%
2 witch tower 1.5%
13 pavilion 10%
4 improved storehouse 3%
1 angel monument 0.76%
1 dark castle 0.76%
0 white castle 0%
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