return to bandits nest drop rate

[ATHTHEMANIAC]

over the past 2-3 weeks i been doing bandits nest adventure...out of the 60 i have done i only got 11 rtbn's the post i have read about all say the drop rate is 30% but 11/60 = 18%..which is just over half of what have been posted ...have they nerfed the drop rate of this follow up adventure because of the books that drop in it ?

i am dreading doing rtbn now cause if they have nerfed the drop rate of rtbn then i suspect they also have nerfed the drop rate of books and all the time and resources will now be wasted

[Bluesavanah]

I'd say the drop rate is about 20%-25%, but it seems patchy my wife got 3 in a row. It's all just luck I guess.

[Tripi]

I would guess that the drop rate is the standard 23.3% like Swampy -> OldFriends and Pirates -> MotherlyLove

I tend to buy ten at a time in Merchant and have done all those before and got absolutely none. Other times I have done the ten and got three or four.

Hopefully you will do better with the next sixty

[MutantKid]

I recently played 15 Rbn's in a row on a 1 day premium, (my 3rd run so far) and this was a disaster, 9 tomes, 24 manu's, so from a possibility of 30 loots I only had 11 drop books, was more annoyed that I didn't get any codex as my 2 other runs produced at least 6 in each.

Whether the drops have changed or not who knows. (I did a run of 21 normal Bn's and that produced 8 Rbn's)

[Duong_TonThat]

i bought 50 bandit nest, after complete them, i got 11 rtbn,

Sometime i get 3 in the row, other time i got none

% is very difference from player to player , BB is not announcing %. Wat u heard from the post is base on the player drop rate, ur drop rate maybe different

I believe it varies from 15%-30% drop rate. if ur drop rate is 18% mean u r not lucky compare to other player

My is 20% drop rate.

[DrVonGooner]

I have now done 60 BN in a row without a single RTBN. That makes a drop rate of 0%..... Ridiculous.

[Sharpielein]

i bought 50 bandit nest, after complete them, i got 11 rtbn,

Sometime i get 3 in the row, other time i got none

% is very difference from player to player , BB is not announcing %. Wat u heard from the post is base on the player drop rate, ur drop rate maybe different

I believe it varies from 15%-30% drop rate. if ur drop rate is 18% mean u r not lucky compare to other player

My is 20% drop rate.

You haven't done enough of them to say something statistically meaningful.

"I went outside yesterday and today, yesterday it rained, today sun shines, so for me the chance of rain is 50%" ... naww ... it's neither something related to you personally nor is the sample size adequate.

I have done probably around 200 BN and got about 10 RBN. Some sites claim that the drop rate is 4.6%, so I'm slightly above average.
You may be significantly above average, but do a couple thousand more and tell us your findings.

It would take over 10k adventures to tell with at least a 95% certainty whether the claim of 4.6% is accurate or not.

I crunched some numbers for you:
* If 4.6% were the "true value", after 50 adventures, you could be 95% certain that it should be somewhere between 0% and 11%.
* If 4.6% were the "true value", it takes 1000 adventures to determine with 95% certainty whether the drop rate is above or below 6%.
* Given a 20% observation over 50 adventures, you can be 99% certain that the drop rate is somewhere between 4% and 35%.

That said, statistically, your observation is still within the range of "normal", and proves/disproves nothing.

[LordBosse]

After the lootnerfdate I get about 1 RttBN in 20-30 BN, before I got 2-4 RttBN from 4-6 BN, so yes they nerfed the dropratio very badly.

[Xibor]

You haven't done enough of them to say something statistically meaningful.

Exactly Sharpielein. I've seen a lot of posts about "drop rates" and it's clear to me that many people simply do not understand probabilities. Having a 10% chance does NOT mean that if I do 100 attempts I will have 10. It means each time you try, there is a 10% chance. It doesn't matter if you have done a thousand, the next time the chance is 10%. And will never be more than at 10% chance, no matter how many times you try. I know it seems 'natural' to think something like "I've tried this 1000 times so I MUST be due for one" - that simply isn't true. It's still another 10% chance.

As the sample reaches infinity you will have the approximate rate that you expect.

[Bluesavanah]

Beginning to think it's statistically more probable you'd get run over by an aeroplane than getting a follow up adventure.