return to bandits nest drop rate

[MerlinXII]

The laws of probability say nothing of the sort. The drop rate could be 99.9999% yet after 3000 even there is nothing to say you would have gotten 1.

If this is how your percentage is applied then the formula you using is wrong.. A good formula should bring up close to the intended percentage drop rate. If lets look at a claimed 10% drop rate... I do 10 adv it is NOT unrealistic to expect that i should get at least a return on 1 adv... if i do 100 then at least 10 adv must bring a return... I cannot do 30 and get nothing. Then the formula is OBVIOUSLY not working and needs tweaking. Math is math and not luck.. if your drop rate is out of proportion the the formula needs tweaking... simple math...

[Seamus1]

If this is how your percentage is applied then the formula you using is wrong.. A good formula should bring up close to the intended percentage drop rate. If lets look at a claimed 10% drop rate... I do 10 adv it is NOT unrealistic to expect that i should get at least a return on 1 adv... if i do 100 then at least 10 adv must bring a return... I cannot do 30 and get nothing. Then the formula is OBVIOUSLY not working and needs tweaking. Math is math and not luck.. if your drop rate is out of proportion the the formula needs tweaking... simple math...

The drop-rate of loot does indeed go per adventure.
You have a chance of ....% each time you play 1 adventure to get ..... item.

[Ozzymandeus]

Math is math and not luck.. if your drop rate is out of proportion the the formula needs tweaking... simple math...

What we are dealing with here is probability statistics... not basic math.

Probability is luck... and it has no memory... simple fact...

[fishslice]

Further to the above - I recently did 2 Bandit Nest adventures back to back and got RtBN in both. That was just good fortune. I have previously done 40 back to back and had nothing. That was being unlucky.
Both of the above are likely scenarios when dealing with probability.

[topgearfan]

150 adventures that drop follow-up adventures completed this event. 2 follow-up adventures dropped.
I understand making building drops rare but what is the point in making some adventures extinct?

[MCLueppers]

I got 2 RttBN from just 20 BNs. Does it mean my drop rate is 1/10? Of course not. I was just too lucky...

[Bluesavanah]

I know how to cure my frustrations trying to get a RtBN put them in the Epic part of the merchant for say 2000 sc and a weekly cooldown

[Korbun]

I just try 10 Bandit nest adventures....I got 2 RTBN adventures...Next week will do another x10 run and will se what happend

[Xibor]

From what I've found, the follow-up adventures chance is 2.0%. This means you won't find them very often. And see my previous most about odds. So many people don't understand probabilities - no matter what the rate is (except for 0.0% or 100%) you are not guaranteed anything - no matter how many times you try. You can flip a coin 100 times and there is a chance you will never get heads.

[Korbun]

Another 10 BN - 0 RTBN for me