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Thread: Hospitable Bone Church no longer dropping from The Whirlwind adventure

  1. #21
    Master of Strategy Kit_'s Avatar
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    I meant that other than being able to see all the loot that I have entered for all of my adv's (personal stat's), I can see the loot drops for all adv's entered by all players on the tracker (global stat's). Those players are currently only from Lazy Monkey and THU guilds, both guilds on Newfoundland.
    I have no idea exactly when those churches dropped, unless I want to try and trawl through hundreds upon hundreds of loot entries to find those specific entries. I only know when the co-op adventures were added to the tracker and records started of those loot drops.
    And the players using this tracker have no reason to not enter accurate information, we mostly use it to keep track of what we have won, and to provide a picture of loot drop rates. Which is quite useful considering this debate. I would rather trust data collected by dedicated players than hearsay and speculation. One of the reasons only 2 guilds currently use this site, is to keep the site safe, with reliable data entry.

  2. #22
    Keen Commentor Splotch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmurfAsH View Post
    They may add they had a drop earlier, before the changes and before they got the loot tracker..
    The stats that Kit_ provided say it's 4.6875% and the chance of it dropping is 4%, so assuming that the 64 attempts and 3 drops aren't fictitious or erroneous that seems to be in the right area... But, fair enough, bin that as unreliable if you like.

    Quote Originally Posted by SmurfAsH View Post
    As I've said.. I'll keep doing WW and getting 4x loot info per WW I do.. Eventually there will be a drop, but as it's now.. it's no longer "about 2%".. It's about some ‰..
    You should treat the four loot drops as separate collections of data really and then to get anything useful from it I'd say you'd have to keep banging away until each of the four sets has at least one success, the more the merrier though really... That's how I'd do it anyways.

    You've got a long road ahead for sure and I wish you the best of luck!

  3. #23
    Ruler of the Land
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    Oh no here we are again, when are you guys going to learn.
    When it comes to Gene pools and shallow ends they can be found at the bar drinking pina colada's

  4. #24
    Glorious Graduate
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    So 96% of not getting the BC - each time. Hard one. Good luck from me too. ;-)

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Splotch View Post
    You should treat the four loot drops as separate collections of data really and then to get anything useful from it I'd say you'd have to keep banging away until each of the four sets has at least one success, the more the merrier though really... That's how I'd do it anyways.

    You've got a long road ahead for sure and I wish you the best of luck!
    Why should I treat the foor loot drops as separate collections? It's the same chance of (not) getting any HBC for every and each time. Do you think that loot tracker treat the four loot drops in four separate sets?

    To all:
    It's funny how people are able to know things are working as intended even though they obviously have not even done a check by them selves.
    The only thing needed here is ONE person that can confirm there's been a drop since the changes.
    As some already has started to trolling here.. I bet not.
    25/11-14 , 23/02-16 .. The end is coming and it will look like this .

  6. #26
    Keen Commentor Splotch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmurfAsH View Post
    Why should I treat the foor loot drops as separate collections? It's the same chance of (not) getting any HBC for every and each time. Do you think that loot tracker treat the four loot drops in four separate sets?
    I'd treat them as separate sets of data for a few reasons but mainly because they are separate collections of sample data from different sources even though they come from the same adventure and to a lesser extent because I could only be certain of the data I collected myself. It's just the way I'd do it.

    Quote Originally Posted by SmurfAsH View Post
    As some already has started to trolling here.. I bet not.
    If that's directed at me then I assure you I'm not trolling. I'm interested in the subject because I'm a coder and one of the things write code for is a betting website. I was thinking about this in the car on the way home and I just wrote a little Python script to simulate what you're doing. Assuming that the drop calculation is entirely random and the implied drop rate is 4% each of these lines show a quick summary of 1000 iterations :

    Quote Originally Posted by MyScript
    39/1000 (3.9%), longest losing run 149
    42/1000 (4.2%), longest losing run 173
    42/1000 (4.2%), longest losing run 185
    28/1000 (2.8%), longest losing run 207
    45/1000 (4.5%), longest losing run 155
    41/1000 (4.1%), longest losing run 218
    I tweaked it so it works more like the adventure and had a look what the longest losing run for a group of four people over a thousand iterations is, didn't make that output very readable though so you'll have to take my word on it... You've been pretty unlucky if you've done more than 100 with no-one dropping, in fact I'd say you've got about another 30 to go before my teeny weeny Python script completely agrees with you that something is broken - or at the very least the drop isn't completely random... But, as you say, all you need is one person to confirm there's been a drop since the changes.

  7. #27
    Ruler of the Land
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    Quote Originally Posted by Splotch View Post
    I'd treat them as separate sets of data for a few reasons but mainly because they are separate collections of sample data from different sources even though they come from the same adventure and to a lesser extent because I could only be certain of the data I collected myself. It's just the way I'd do it.
    As I've been doing all these WW with guildmates it's people I can expect would notify me if they had a drop. According to stats there could have been 16 HBC dropped from those 100 WWs, and perhaps they could have been dropped unnoticed, but it's less than 16 guildmates (with no reason to not notify me) involved here so it's quite improbably some HBC would have been dropped unnoticed - it's also easy for me to check their island..

    Quote Originally Posted by Splotch View Post
    If that's directed at me then I assure you I'm not trolling.
    Nope, that was directed to others.

    Quote Originally Posted by Splotch View Post
    I'm interested in the subject because I'm a coder and one of the things write code for is a betting website. I was thinking about this in the car on the way home and I just wrote a little Python script to simulate what you're doing. Assuming that the drop calculation is entirely random and the implied drop rate is 4% each of these lines show a quick summary of 1000 iterations..
    I tweaked it so it works more like the adventure and had a look what the longest losing run for a group of four people over a thousand iterations is, didn't make that output very readable though so you'll have to take my word on it... You've been pretty unlucky if you've done more than 100 with no-one dropping, in fact I'd say you've got about another 30 to go before my teeny weeny Python script completely agrees with you that something is broken - or at the very least the drop isn't completely random... But, as you say, all you need is one person to confirm there's been a drop since the changes.
    Yes, a hundred more is also what I would say "a perfect streak of unluck".
    25/11-14 , 23/02-16 .. The end is coming and it will look like this .

  8. #28
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    Lets for the sake of argument say you do 1 whirlwind adventure, you compare your loot with what the others got. Question, how many times have you invoked the random number generator.
    When it comes to Gene pools and shallow ends they can be found at the bar drinking pina colada's

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dorotheus View Post
    Lets for the sake of argument say you do 1 whirlwind adventure, you compare your loot with what the others got. Question, how many times have you invoked the random number generator.
    4.. (0.96^4=0.849..) => about 85% There won't be any HBC dropping.
    25/11-14 , 23/02-16 .. The end is coming and it will look like this .

  10. #30
    Keen Commentor Splotch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmurfAsH View Post
    Yes, a hundred more is also what I would say "a perfect streak of unluck".
    I tweaked this little script again so it's more human readable... I made a mistake, you're over already at 100 with nothing dropping for anyone.

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Scripty Thing
    *********************
    Adventures Run : 10000000
    1+ Drops : 1505116 (15.05116%)
    No Drops : 8494884
    Total Spot Drops : 1598648 / 40000000 (3.99662%)
    Loot Spots : 400042 (4.00042%) | 399240 (3.9924%) | 399798 (3.99798%) | 399568 (3.99568%)
    Longest Losing Run : 356 | 301 | 380 | 324
    Average Losing Run : 24.0 | 24.05 | 24.01 | 24.03
    Longest Group Losing Run : 83
    Average Group Losing Run : 5.64400617627
    *********************
    After 10,000,000 "adventures" with 4 "players" having a 4% chance each to drop the loot the longest stretch that nothing at all dropped was 72 adventures and the average was 5.6. You can see from the individual spots that the rate is about right but their longest losing runs are a lot longer than the group... If the 4% chance were a group based thing and the reward was then randomised between the players attending the adventure, it'd make much more sense that you're not getting anywhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slightly Tweaked
    *********************
    Adventures Run : 10000000
    1+ Drops : 399105 (3.99105%)
    No Drops : 9600895
    Total Spot Drops : 399105 / 40000000 (0.9977625%)
    Loot Spots : 99842 (0.99842%) | 100120 (1.0012%) | 99531 (0.99531%) | 99612 (0.99612%)
    Longest Losing Run : 1071 | 1472 | 1237 | 1218
    Average Losing Run : 96.16 | 95.89 | 96.46 | 96.38
    Longest Group Losing Run : 362
    Average Group Losing Run : 24.0560629408
    *********************
    So basically ten million iterations and the longest run with no drop was 362, pretty similar to the individual sets in the first and the 4% is reflected in the 1+ drops because now there's only ever one possible drop... But! That's just me fiddling about, could mean naff all in the grand scheme of things - might have missed something.

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