A guildmate had one (his first) HBC dropping now, so atleast that extra slot ain't fully turned off..
I checked out the link to the changes you posted in your opening post and it contains an error.Originally Posted by SmurfAsH
The image underneath then shows 5 slots with the 6th being the special drop, that's a bit confusing and as there's an error like that in the news item I'd take the official information related to it with a pinch of salt.
It's not an adventure I've ever done before and with a quick search I was able to find a couple of loot tables that had it listed but not one where it said the chance was specificially 4% to get that loot, very small search though. I took the 4% figure from this thread, maybe it's not actually 4%..? If whoever came up with that number was using a loot tracker like Kit_ it'd be very easy to grab a small sample of data and come up with 4%, as was shown by the 3/64*100=4.6875, even if it were something like 1% or less in reality.
Either it's not a 4% drop, my little loot drop sim script is bugged, is inappropriate or you're far more unlucky than it said any group could be after ten million adventures.In any case you've sort of got the answer you wanted now one has dropped, good luck on dropping your own.
I'm not trolling you and I'm not insisting that things are working as intended. All I am saying is that your experience is based on anecdata and not actual proof of anything.
Let me tell you a story. Some years ago, I was in charge of support for a fairly large MMORPG. In this game there was a crafting system and when making items, it was possible for a player to make a 'masterpiece' item that could hold more bonuses than a normal item. There was a flat 2% chance of this happening per crafting attempt and these masterpieces were very much in demand so crafters would sit for hours, crafting and crafting until they got the desired masterpiece. One of the most common support requests we would get was from crafters insisting that the random quality code must be broken as they had made hundreds of items and hadn't got their masterpiece yet. Often they would back this up with logs showing their unsuccessful crafting attempts as proof that something was broken. Every time we got one of these reports we would check it out and every time we would find that everything was fine. Because probability isn't always intuitive and it's common to make wrong assumptions about how randomness works.
Your 100+ losing streak is certainly unlucky but, in a sufficiently large population it's almost guaranteed that someone, somewhere is having a long losing streak.
I've recently posted a guildmate had a HBC dropping from one of my started WWs. That's a fact. I can easily check the loot result from all of my WW's as I've been playing them just with guildmates.
[removed]
Hello SmurfAsh,
Let's keep an interesting thread interesting, and skip the accusations.
Regards,
Fexno
The answer to my question has to be about 40 not 4 as you suggest.
When it comes to Gene pools and shallow ends they can be found at the bar drinking pina colada's
While I was able to follow most of the math in this thread, your 40 has me puzzled.
I asked how many times is the random number generator invoked while doing whirlwind. Obviously it must be at least 1 for every camp attacked plus 1 for the loot. A total of about 40.
When it comes to Gene pools and shallow ends they can be found at the bar drinking pina colada's
Let's keep the discussion on the chance a whirlwind drops a bonechurch and what should and shouldn't be possible.
I especially like the example results Splotch gave here, but don't forget that the 4% is only a guess (or an estimate). I wouldn't be surprised if the actual drop chance is only about 2%
I modded the script again just to underline what Fexno has said and I agree with, we are looking at what is and isn't possible in the loot drop and factors like number of camps and random rolls make absolutely no difference unless the process isn't random. With a random number the number of rerolls doesn't change the overall results because the basic principles remain the same... It's random.
This is the original result from the previous page where each player had a single loot roll chance :
Now here's what happens when I've tweaked it to roll X number of times for the loot where X is 40, to be clear that's not 40 chances to get the loot but 40 rolls of the die and we take the last roll. :
The numbers are different but the overall picture remains the same. The only significant difference here that can't be attributed to randomness is that it took ages to run the simulation because it's doing billions of iterations instead of tens of millions... It's the only difference you should expect.
Thanks Fexno! I'm with you on this. I'd say that the 4% drop rate may have been decided on based on a small sample of data when the adventure was first released and over time it's becoming apparent that the 4% is wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 2% or lower myself either. Unless someone has looked at the code and seen the actual drop rate the only thing that these loot tables provide is a best guess.
Last edited by Splotch; 31.07.14 at 09:32.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote