random loot

[SnowBlizz]

I do wonder about their prng. I've sent my explorers and have had pairs of identical results. Down to Luckies bringing the same random buff.

[Xibor]

I do wonder about their prng. I've sent my explorers and have had pairs of identical results. Down to Luckies bringing the same random buff.

One of mind has a propensity for Fermentation Accelerators which I don't mind at all
(he brings other stuff too, I don't sense any pattern). And I send two Lucky Explorers both out for prolonged search every time they are home and always at the same time and what they bring back is highly variable.

[sparkz]

But then to see the same results you would have to do the exact same things (that would use random events) each day in the exact same order which I also think is very unlikely.

I didnt read the entire discussion but if you consider weighed loottables (which I believe is how its usually done) like :

(pseudocode)

r = random(100)

if ( 1 < r < 30 ) {

granite()

} else {

exotic_wood()
}

then :
a) whether or not the underlying prng coming from the SDK is reliable might not be that relevant for the end result (because the result is controlled by hand-made logic)
b) having the same end result does not necesarily indicate (or require) the same prng result

[Durin_d]

a) whether or not the underlying prng coming from the SDK is reliable might not be that relevant for the end result (because the result is controlled by hand-made logic)
b) having the same end result does not necesarily indicate (or require) the same prng result

a) The problem here is that the prng has to generate numbers with equal distribution which some prng algorithms has problems with. If the prng gives more often numbers between 10-20 than 40-50 then your code would not give 28% chance for granite and 72% for exotic wood.

b) No it doesn't. But like in the answer to a) the prng has to have equal distribution of values.

Example description from java.Math.Random(): "Returns a double value with a positive sign, greater than or equal to 0.0 and less than 1.0. Returned values are chosen pseudorandomly with (approximately) uniform distribution from that range."

[Xibor]

a) The problem here is that the prng has to generate numbers with equal distribution which some prng algorithms has problems with. If the prng gives more often numbers between 10-20 than 40-50 then your code would not give 28% chance for granite and 72% for exotic wood.

b) No it doesn't. But like in the answer to a) the prng has to have equal distribution of values.

Example description from java.Math.Random(): "Returns a double value with a positive sign, greater than or equal to 0.0 and less than 1.0. Returned values are chosen pseudorandomly with (approximately) uniform distribution from that range."

Again - it's nice hearing from someone who is familiar with code.
The example description is excellent. 1) pseudorandom and approximately being the key phrases.
Just accept it folks - you may think you are perceiving a pattern but our life spans and pathetic attempts at keeping records will never be enough to establish an actual pattern. To evaluate a random generator properly takes millions of repetitions before you even have a clue. A person might think they've done a huge number of adventures but in a probability sense you really haven't done much at all. You are just counting red lights. (it's been proven that a person can quite accurately remember how many red lights they encountered on their trip from work to home but have no idea how many green lights they went through).

Everything in my experience has told me that (pseudo) random number generators are just as good as rolling dice. Perhaps even better. I trust the code is not 'rigged' in any way and we just get on a bad roll (excuse the pun) from time to time.

Btw - I have played at least 100 stealing from the rich (it's one of my favorites because I don't have to think too hard) and I always give Diwata the loot spot and we have never gotten the white castle which percentage-wise should have happened by now. But I don't worry about it - it's just luck. Sooner or later if I keep it up it MIGHT happen...

[Areop-Enap]

Btw - I have played at least 100 stealing from the rich (it's one of my favorites because I don't have to think too hard) and I always give Diwata the loot spot and we have never gotten the white castle which percentage-wise should have happened by now. But I don't worry about it - it's just luck. Sooner or later if I keep it up it MIGHT happen...

If you want a white castle, try play the co op Lakeside. I have never gotten a white castle from SFTR either, but gotten 2 from Lakeside and haven't even played nearly as many of them as SFTR which I played almost religiously in the late thirties/early fourties. Could be just luck, but somehow doubt it I have a rotten luck with building drops (never once had a dark castle drop from BK despite the many adventures and ls I have done). The wiki does list it as a higher percentage to drop on the co op...take that however you wish.
Anyway, the recruit losses are about the same on both adventures and always nice with variety.

[Xibor]

If you want a white castle, try play the co op Lakeside. I have never gotten a white castle from SFTR either, but gotten 2 from Lakeside and haven't even played nearly as many of them as SFTR which I played almost religiously in the late thirties/early fourties. Could be just luck, but somehow doubt it I have a rotten luck with building drops (never once had a dark castle drop from BK despite the many adventures and ls I have done). The wiki does list it as a higher percentage to drop on the co op...take that however you wish.
Anyway, the recruit losses are about the same on both adventures and always nice with variety.

Cheers for that. We have played that a couple times but not that often, it might be worth the attempt for her (I promised the first white castle to her if I get one - kind of a present). It's not that we want one that bad, it's just because neither one of us has found one.
But I'm sure it's going to be her - she got a dark castle, witch tower and a angel gate (which somehow I managed to get out of her, part of the reason I owe her) but myself personally I am 56 going on 57 and have never gotten a single building drop. Kinda speaks to the point of the thread in my opinion

[TheVictorious]

In math i think its almost impossible to get no luck with getting 1 hit after number of times, I mean, in simple example, if you flip coin 10 times, you have 50% chance to get head, but the chance to get 0 head is 1/(2^10) so its 1/1024= 0.09765625%

the following example that to calculate chance to get 4 heads at least of 6 times :



If you math nerd or a student you may ask a teacher about this, what the chance to get 1 item from a roller after 1000 times, if the chance to get that item is 2/100 ?

If you have chance to get WT like 2/100 so lets say 1/50, the chance to get 0 WT after 5000 times is 1.4124670321394260368352096670161e-8493%, do you mean what this means?

This means 0.(8493 zeros)14% , sure its will never 0 even if you did 1,000,000,000 RBs, but even in atomic level it is absolute 0 chance to get nothing!.

Its independent event yes, but the chance to get at least 1 time after number of times must be counted too but its another issue that single independent event, if you flip a coin 1000 times, the chance to get head each time is still 50% but the chance to get 0 heads in 1000 times !? its not even logical, you must get something almost near 50% heads after those 1000 times, what ever sequence you get like 3 heads then 1 tails, then 2 heads then 5 tails, but the final result must be something around the real percentage.

Finally, I just want to say, I agree totally agree that the percentage of chances to get rare items somehow broken in game, or not real and fake, maybe not for all adventures, but yes.

For me, I played a lot of RBs I got only 1 WT so far, played like 600 BKs and only 1 DC, played a lot of SE, no MSE, hundreds of adventures like Nords and BN got 0 follow up.

To simply the summary, each time you play adventure your chance is only 2% event if you played it 5000 times, but chance to get 0 WT from 5000 times is 0. (imagine you trying to make single independent event from number of independent events).

[Dorotheus]

Thanks for the maths lesson incomplete as it is, it's a pity that as you dive even deeper into probability theory certain underlying mathematical laws kick in. Such as how the chance of repeating your previous result changes.

[TheVictorious]

Thanks for the maths lesson incomplete as it is, it's a pity that as you dive even deeper into probability theory certain underlying mathematical laws kick in. Such as how the chance of repeating your previous result changes.

wait Math 103