random loot

[vigabrand]

i'm sure i'm not the only 1 to do 5000 rb's and never get a wt. this doesn't feel very random. if drop rate is 2% that doesn't mean i'll get 2 wt's every 100 rb's. its still 2% per adv, my maths aint gr8 but I think that means the drop rate actually diminishes over 100 rb's to .02%, if adv's taken as a whole. In real terms, u do 100 rb's and still only have a 2% chance to get 1 wt.

Would a system that raises the chance of getting a wt everytime u fail work better? say every 10 rb's, with no wt in loot, the chance rises by another 2%. up to a maximum of 20%. then reset when u win a wt. This could be applied to all slots so as to mix the loot up a bit more if necessary.

along with all the other info kept about players on servers I don't think tracking loot % would mean much more load.

[Dorotheus]

Yes your right about your maths. Even a year after your suggestion is implemented we would still see the same situation as we see now with some who appear to get WT at the drop of the hat and others who would see none.

[Xibor]

i'm sure i'm not the only 1 to do 5000 rb's and never get a wt. this doesn't feel very random. if drop rate is 2% that doesn't mean i'll get 2 wt's every 100 rb's. its still 2% per adv, my maths aint gr8 but I think that means the drop rate actually diminishes over 100 rb's to .02%, if adv's taken as a whole. In real terms, u do 100 rb's and still only have a 2% chance to get 1 wt.

Seriously? Again? The complete lack of understanding how probabilities and random works. There have been so many posts on this I can't believe there is still confusion.

Past history has absolutely no relevance on a chance going forward. 2% does NOT mean you will get 2 in every 100. As I posted elsewhere if I have flipped a coin 9,999 times and each time it was heads my chance of flipping heads again is 50%. How many times it has (or has not) worked before doesn't matter. Each chance is independent.

With the assumption (yes, it has to be an assumption since I can't read the code) that there is some chance of getting the drop you want then eventually it will happen - as the repetitions approach infinity the odds increase but they will NEVER be 100%

*groan*

Perhaps I should just give up on explaining it and let people complain that the game isn't 'fair' to them.

One more note - the wife has gotten 3 rare building drops. I have gotten none. That's just the way it goes.

[lordloocan]

Whilst the chance of getting the head is still 50/50 individually the cumulative probability of them all being heads is the issue. And that is what is causing the concern re drops.

[vigabrand]

lol I don't even know what to say to xibors post, except maybe I don't understand it. so let's put the maths aside...

would it be a good idea to increment the drop rate if you don't have any luck with buildings etc?

[Dorotheus]

OK lets see if we can explain it to you with out using maths.

If you do it for one building you have to do it for all buildings, this leaves us with our first problem namely non-tradable buildings.
The second problem is if you do it for the building loot slots then players are going to want it for all loot slots where there is a chance of no loot. To counter balance this your are going to have to add a resource sink for those resources otherwise they lose their in-game value.
The next problem is where your idea falls flat on it's face, that being players are going to demand it applies to all loot slots, this will have the opposite result as it will lead to a situation where the chance of getting a desirable resource like granite or grout drops.
The next problem is where you have a chance of a building or a decoration or nothing. Using the system you suggest could result in the decoration getting priority over the building until that decoration drops with the end result being a lessening of building drop rates.

[Xibor]

Whilst the chance of getting the head is still 50/50 individually the cumulative probability of them all being heads is the issue. And that is what is causing the concern re drops.

I surrender - there's no point in trying anymore

[Dorotheus]

Whilst the chance of getting the head is still 50/50 individually the cumulative probability of them all being heads is the issue. And that is what is causing the concern re drops.

It's not cumulative.

Allow me to explain using a game most players may know, Monopoly. It's mid game and we have 4 players playing the game. You see your best hope of winning is to throw doubles to avoid landing on the other players properties. After 12 rounds you have failed to throw your doubles, would you be right to expect you should have done it twice. No such thinking would be wrong, because those 12 rounds consist of 48 throws of the dice and they have come up double 9 times which is once more than the average you would expect, it's just that the doubles have come up for the other 3 players.

Settlers is a bit more complicated than that for two reasons. First you have more players. Secondly and this is the most important bit you are getting more rolls than you think and you are getting the result you want from them.

You get a RB lootdrop, no WT. You decide to run another one. While waiting for your gens to arrive you have some geo's and explorers to send out, if skilled or lucky the will each use one or more rolls, some of which will give you the result your after. Once you start fighting again your using rolls and again some will give you the results your after. Finally the adventure is done and your ready to open the loot mail. From the 1st loot mail to the second you will have used between 20-60+ rolls totalling a lot of wins some giving bigger depo's, some giving free buffs, res or guild coins, some resulting in less troops lost.

Now multiply all that by all the players on the server. It don't change the odds of a WT drop but for any given player the only safe assumption is your not going to get one but somebody else will. It's not a 2% chance of winning a WT it's a 98% chance of not getting one including a 80% chance of nothing. You may as well ask your self when you get something from that lootslot are you getting statues 90% of the time.

[HFoC]

As I posted elsewhere if I have flipped a coin 9,999 times and each time it was heads my chance of flipping heads again is 50%. How many times it has (or has not) worked before doesn't matter. Each chance is independent.

You're missing the point. It's not about the 50/50.
It's about: what is the chance of getting heads 10 times in a row? Or 9.999 times.

[Dorotheus]

You're missing the point. It's not about the 50/50.
It's about: what is the chance of getting heads 10 times in a row? Or 9.999 times.

And your missing the point, it's not just you flipping coins.