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Thread: Anslem, Accuracy, and RNG bug.

  1. #1
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    Anslem, Accuracy, and RNG bug.

    I'm experiencing a bug with Anslem's accuracy, easily reproducible on "Ali Baba the Young Woodcutter".
    Here's how to reproduce:
    • Clear all camps but the last two.
    • Send Anslem with any single elite unit (might happen with normal units as well?) to the camp with 70SM+50SW+40DM.
    • Observe Anslem doing 1000 dmg (20% chance) rather than 1500 dmg (80% chance) *every single time*.
    My conclusion is, this indicates a bug in either the random number generator, or Anslem's abilities, somehow reducing his own accuracy to 0 under certain conditions.

    Please see "before" and "after" screenshots, with explanation below.
    This is a single occurrence, but it is representative of a test I've been running over at least 20 ABtYWC adventures.
    I challenge anyone to provide a counter-example! That is, proof of Anslem dealing 1500 dmg to this camp.

    Explanation:
    In the "before" image you see Anslem with 1 Armored Marksman, attacking said camp.
    Our marksman removes one enemy Desert Marsksman, and has no splash damage: 80 hp.
    Anslem does 1000 damage, totaling 1080 damage, reflected in the "after" image.

    Again, I will stress that this has happened *at least* 20 times in a row, and I've *never* seen Anslem dealing 1500 dmg to this camp since I started noticing this pattern.
    Attached Images

  2. #2
    Jolly Advisor Amazony's Avatar
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    I don't know what you think you are upon here, but Anslem comes with a 50 % accuracy and he may get at 60 % with master planner .

  3. #3
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    I stand corrected, Anslem's accuracy is indeed 50%.
    Taking this into consideration, the probability of "missing" again and again over 20 separate experiments, stands at:
    0.5^20 = 0.00000095367431640625 ~= 0.000095%
    Therefore extremely unlikely unless originating in a bug (making the accuracy much less than 50%, i.e. challenging our initial assumptions).

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackEyedBee View Post
    I stand corrected, Anslem's accuracy is indeed 50%.
    Taking this into consideration, the probability of "missing" again and again over 20 separate experiments, stands at:
    0.5^20 = 0.00000095367431640625 ~= 0.000095%
    Therefore extremely unlikely unless originating in a bug (making the accuracy much less than 50%, i.e. challenging our initial assumptions).
    Your previous result has no effect on the current roll, the odds are 50% everytime. Between the last time you attacked this camp and this time there are thousands if not millions of rolls of the rng by both yourself and all other players on the server.
    When it comes to Gene pools and shallow ends they can be found at the bar drinking pina colada's

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dorotheus View Post
    Your previous result has no effect on the current roll, the odds are 50% everytime. Between the last time you attacked this camp and this time there are thousands if not millions of rolls of the rng by both yourself and all other players on the server.
    Here we go again.. https://forum.thesettlersonline.com/...l=1#post318721
    Why are you still confusing with conditional probability when this (in theory) is clearly about independent events? You know the difference between flipping coins and drawing cards from a deck, right?

    Also, you're still ignoring well-known facts - computer generated random numbers are not pure RNG but Pseudorandom number generator.
    You don't know how PRNG is used in TSO. Me neither, but I'm not the one of us two having problem finding extra deposits - hint, there are streaks in this game (too) that clearly tells the difference between a flawless RNG system (that you think of) and the PRNG system here is. This thread is about just another such streak.
    Last edited by SmurfAsH; 30.09.17 at 15:46.
    25/11-14 , 23/02-16 .. The end is coming and it will look like this .

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackEyedBee
    I challenge anyone to provide a counter-example! That is, proof of Anslem dealing 1500 dmg to this camp.
    Until then, this is a bug.
    Last edited by BlackEyedBee; 01.10.17 at 04:15.

  7. #7
    Nifty
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    Same bug as it is with getting Manuscript recipe. They should investigate and fix this.

  8. #8
    Jolly Advisor Amazony's Avatar
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    Even better, load 160 MS and 40 AM into a tavern general and block that camp.The block is so long that you can go to the corner market , do the groceries and return, the block will still be active. Bug avoided, pointless (pseudo)RNG over.

  9. #9
    Ruler of the Land Xibor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmurfAsH View Post
    ...
    Why are you still confusing with conditional probability when this (in theory) is clearly about independent events? You know the difference between flipping coins and drawing cards from a deck, right?

    Also, you're still ignoring well-known facts - computer generated random numbers are not pure RNG but Pseudorandom number generator.
    You don't know how PRNG is used in TSO. Me neither, but I'm not the one of us two having problem finding extra deposits - hint, there are streaks in this game (too) that clearly tells the difference between a flawless RNG system (that you think of) and the PRNG system here is. This thread is about just another such streak.
    Very well put. Unfortunately there will always (it appears) be some that just won't accept it (or don't get it).
    Sorry, but I've slept since then...

  10. #10
    Skilled Student
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    why should everything come easy ?

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