weekly quests - nature of tasks

[Xibor]

Wisdom can also be obtained from 2nd Thief (25%)

I didn't consider that.... so things would get more complicated. Because Woodcutter would then lead to an OR condition of 2nd or 3rd thief, which have their chances of Wisdom.

Woodcutter to 2nd = 1/6, then to Wisdom from 2nd = 1/4, so 1/24
Woodcutter to 3rd = 1/6, then to Wisdom from 3rd = 1/2 = 1/12
or
Woodcutter to either 2nd or 3rd = (1/6)+(1/6) = (2/6 or 1/3)
So then Wisdom as a result from Woodcutter should be (1/3)*(1/2) = 1/6

That is indeed better.
But it is still very hard to find 3 Wisdom adventures in a week as well as play them all. So I think that quest in particular is unreasonable. That's where my point was going.

[Wulfmeister]

But it is still very hard to find 3 Wisdom adventures in a week as well as play them all. So I think that quest in particular is unreasonable. That's where my point was going.

I don't disagree with you in the slightest. Having said that, because I had them in stock I did manage to complete two ToW under a single Scout Post buff, followed by another two days later. And knowing that I had the challenge, I was able to build the required armies while completing the earlier tasks in the challenge.

[Norton_C]

And what is wrong with the basics?

Don't want to get into an epic debate, so just briefly

Problem is twofold:

First trying to prove anything by math without respecting correct data is ........... fill in the blanks. But you already corrected yourself in your next post saying that chances of getting ToW from chain following one YWC is actually double than you originally claimed (1 to 6 instead of 1 : 12).

Second: Your logic (use of tools) is incorrect. What you are actually calculating by your math excercise (or would have been if you had correct entry data in the first place) is a chance of any 3 YWC (simultaneous, consecutive, any .......) each giving out ToW in their follow up chain. Which isn't anything a gamer needs to know, really. (It's the probability of getting any particular sequence in the word of 3 characters picked from alphabet of 6, which is 1 to number of combinations available in that setting.)
Chances of getting 3 ToW from chain following one YWC is actually zero. No matter how many times you play one YWC chain, the only value you can get is either 0 or 1 ToW, never 3.
The actual useful information from which you confused yourself is this: You calculated the probability to be 1 to 6 meaning that in the long run you'll get ToW from every 6th YWC chain. To get 3 ToW drop probability you simply triple the amount of YWC chains needed (play 18 YWC to get 3 ToW). No place for product of 3 individual chances here as it calculates something different.

So ....... to summarise:
Chance of getting 1 ToW from 1 YWC chain is 1 to 6.
Chance of getting 3 ToW from 1 YWC chain is ZERO
Chance of getting 3 ToW from 3 consecutive YWC chains is 1 to 216 (product) (but it doesn't mean we need to play 216 YWC to get 3 ToW)
To get 3 ToW you need to play 18 YWC chains on average (triple, not product of individual chances)

As you can see the real chance is immensely higher then your original calculation suggests. If that is reasonable for the WC or not is separate question (although it would be fair to point out that we actually have minimum 4 weeks on average to get ToW needed for WC, not just one as you suggest). Here I'm only addressing your math fallacies.

Now pls don't get mad at me if you still don't understand. Get your books and study.

[Xibor]

Don't want to get into an epic debate, so just briefly ...Now pls don't get mad at me if you still don't understand. Get your books and study.

You are being rather condescending and I find that unnecessary, but so be it. I actually believe you are incorrect and while my analysis has flaws whether I perceive all if them or not it's clear that your's couldn't possibly.

Clearly I never said that you could get 3 wisdom from 1 woodcutter. If I expressed it that way it was clearly wrong as it defies logic. I was expressing that to get 3 wisdom the minimum would be 3 woodcutter, and the odds would be very long because it requires and intermediate additional random event.

However the issue is settled as far as I am concerned. I will yield to a different way of looking at the probabilities, accept that I've forgotten more then I know, and this is not the thread for it anyway. The overall frustration by almost all players about how unrealistic it is to get 3 wisdom in any kind of reasonable time frame is consistant. If anyone is interested a thread could be open to discuss probability theory but this thread isn't the place and I shouldn't have offered such detail to begin with (as flawed as it was).

[Norton_C]

The overall frustration by almost all players about how unrealistic it is to get 3 wisdom in any kind of reasonable time frame is consistant. If anyone is interested a thread could be open to discuss probability theory but this thread isn't the place and I shouldn't have offered such detail to begin with (as flawed as it was).

This is actually the reason why I addressed that cause bad math drives bad moods even further unnecessarily. People can get easily confused when they attempt to be too scholarly, yet simple down to earth "math" reveals that the situation is by far not as bad as some make it look. Put it this way:

With 50 % drop chance you need to play 2 x 3rd Thief to get 1 ToW on average.
With 25 % drop chance you need to play 4 x 2nd Thief or 2 x 2nd plus their LS to get 1 ToW on average.
Or you can play 1 x 3rd Thief and 1 x 2nd Thief with it's LS to get one ToW on average.

To get one 2nd and one 3rd Thief, each with 16.66 drop chance, you need to play 6 YWC on average.
As a result, to get one ToW you need to play 6 x YWC, 1 x 3rd Thief and 1 x 2nd Thief with LS, that is 8 adventures plus 1 LS on average.

To get 3 ToW you obviously need 3 times as many, which is 18 x YWC, 3 x 3rd Thief and 3 x 2nd Thief with it's LS. That is "whooping" 24 adventures + 3 LS.

Since we have 4 different challenges, provided we let each last the whole week, this one would come every fourth week on average, that would give us 4 weeks to do these 24 adventures, which would be 6 adventures a week. We could think about doing it faster or skipping it sometimes but let's keep it this basic and simple for the argument sake.

So on average, under above conditions, we'd need to do 6 specific adventures a week to be ready for our next 3 ToWs (plus those 3 ToW during one of these 4 weeks). Doesn't sound "unrealistic", or does it?



errrm ......... can't find "spoiler" button ?

PS: Just btw, probability is not a theory, it is well defined math discipline with precise, simple calculations, knowledge of which is used daily by big businesses to ensure their profit or safety of their data etc., for example casinos or cryptography.

[Xibor]

PS: Just btw, probability is not a theory, it is well defined math discipline with precise, simple calculations, knowledge of which is used daily by big businesses to ensure their profit or safety of their data etc., for example casinos or cryptography.

I'm done with this on this thread. If you think that playing the 18 woodcutters just to have a probable chance of getting the 3 wisdom you need is "realistic" then we define those terms differently. I like playing other things too. And if you are doing other weekly challenges (and also if you have a life) you are forced to do other things as well so you can't devote your time to the one adventure chain (or you have more time to only play adventures than I do).

I'm fine with your answer on the probability so asked and answered. We could never agree it appears on the definition of "realistic".

Thanks for your insights.

Oh - btw :"Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms (an axiom or postulate is a statement that is taken to be true, to serve as a premise or starting point for further reasoning and arguments)".

Different definition of what a theory is as well it appears.

Cheers

[Steve1077]

I'm done with this on this thread. If you think that playing the 18 woodcutters just to have a probable chance of getting the 3 wisdom you need is "realistic" then we define those terms differently. I like playing other things too. And if you are doing other weekly challenges (and also if you have a life) you are forced to do other things as well so you can't devote your time to the one adventure chain (or you have more time to only play adventures than I do).

I'm fine with your answer on the probability so asked and answered. We could never agree it appears on the definition of "realistic".

Thanks for your insights.

Oh - btw :"Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms (an axiom or postulate is a statement that is taken to be true, to serve as a premise or starting point for further reasoning and arguments)".

Different definition of what a theory is as well it appears.

Cheers

I'm with you, I can't see how anyone can think the WC are worth it even if you have the adventures to start with, but you will always find someone that will argue it is

[sanadar]

Sadly one of my favorite times of the week now is DELETING the failed quest line. Reminds me how terrible this new "feature" is. Word of advice... if you put something that bad into the game, dont make it remind the players how terrible the effort was EVERY week with 4-5 deletions of a FAILED quest line.

I am truly at a loss as to who and why anyone thought this was a good idea and why you have not made even the slightest attempt to correct or balance it. WC is the proper acronym cause it stands for Water Closet in most countries.

Make it fun, make it enjoyable. Reminder... you are producing a GAME. It's supposed to be FUN.

sanadar

[RobD]

The week before last the WC quest wanted me to complete 3 "Tomb Raiders" quests - a 5-day, 4-person co-op quest. (Last week was 2x "Wild Mary" which was possible, but 3x "Tomb Raider" just isn't.)
It still seems they still aren't checking these things and, after several weeks of apparent inactivity, I'm guessing they now never will.

I'll stick to just doing the Ship bits for the easy XP if (and only if) the resource requirements are ones I have lots of and have a good supply chain; ignore the other half and then delete the "fail" at the end of the week.

[geezer123]

The week before last the WC quest wanted me to complete 3 "Tomb Raiders" quests - a 5-day, 4-person co-op quest. (Last week was 2x "Wild Mary" which was possible, but 3x "Tomb Raider" just isn't.)

Uuuummmm once you have 4 participants (and there are a LOT of offers for TR in trade) it takes about 30 mins to do it.