I will never wash my lucky nostril again! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Goudsten
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I will never wash my lucky nostril again! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Goudsten
Which national anthem doesn't matter, but I forgot an important detail. It has to be the middle finger, otherwise it won't work. Sorry for all you guys that tried and failed, but now you know why.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRook21
Same here 0/4 on Bandits...managed to get 400 titanium ore 3 times in a row (11% chance)...1 in 751 chance of that happening. Then again, I generally get granite 1 out of 10 adventures which is below average. Goodbye Fart Winds or whatever it is called...
We had a guy who was really angry that he couldn't find the resources for days. Then today he did found them. Chat went CAPS :D
So ye, it seems these quests can get on your nerves, but when you get it, love is in the air again ^^
Can I do it again? Please, please, please. It was fun.
400 titanium ore, 1000 hardwood, 800 steel swords, 1600 horses,500 bread, 300 gold coins, 9880 exp
First and last attempt on Bandits Nest.
This event took way too much of my time and resources, and i couldnt even go half way throu.
Next time i see similiar one - i delete it straight away.
Thanks.
I'm a bit bored (and a bit sad), so I've decided to list the chances of failing to get granite on bandit's nest:
Chance that 1 attempt failed: 67%
Chance that 2 attempts failed: 44%
Chance that 3 attempts failed: 29%
Chance that 4 attempts failed: 20%
Chance that 5 attempts failed: 13%
Chance that 6 attempts failed: 9%
Chance that 7 attempts failed: 6%
Chance that 8 attempts failed: 4%
Chance that 9 attempts failed: 2.6%
Chance that 10 attempts failed: 1.7%
Chance that 11 attempts failed: 1.2%
Chance that 12 attempts failed: 0.8%
Chance that 13 attempts failed: 0.5%
Chance that 14 attempts failed: 0.34%
Chance that 15 attempts failed: 0.22%
I'm going to stop here, by this point you'd have killed yourself in a fit of depression (at the chances, not my post.. well maybe my post.. )
Note: No matter how many times you've failed, your next attempt still has the same chance to succeed as the very first. The chances to succeed do not increase after each failed adventure.
Guild mates came through again. Missed the granite again. 7 failed attempts at this point. 6% chance isn't flat out impossible, but it sure isn't likely. Still, confirmation bias and all that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antilochus
i alredy kill my self at 4th attempt !
I got the granite on 2nd attempt so it is possible.
ooh that's not strange at all. 6% is a pretty big chance actually. It means if 100 people are trying, you'de expect it to happen to 6 of them. So with lots of players trying, it will happen to some of them. And it just happens to be your guildmate. Bad luck, but on 1 unfortunate case you cant tell if the chances are different or if it's really just bad luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by EctoRune
And the change we hear about it is a lot bigger then 6%. People who have lots of (bad)luck tell it to many more people then the people who experience nothing strange. And bad experiences are told to even more people then good luck. So yeah, it would be strange if we wouldn't here from the unfortunate fellows.
Say you're on a birthdayparty. If one of your friends went cycling last week and had 2 flat tires, it's almost guaranteed you'll hear about it and how extremely unlucky he was. But how often has someone said to you "well what happened to me yesterday.... I went cycling and came home without a flat tire. That's sooooo normal!". Chances are several people heard the first story, and noone ever heard someone telling the 2nd much more common event. The rare events really stand out, but you dont realize how often nothing weirds happens. (almost all the time actually. Look out the window, anything out of the ordinary happening? No?)
Weird.. my next door neighbour is humming the national anthem stood on one leg with his finger up his nose :sQuote:
Originally Posted by Promethos
Day 10 of 14 on my german server, and the explorers have still not found any granite!
as I mentioned much earlier on this thread, its possible to not be able to complete this adventure on the first quest if luck isnt on your side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogbad
Its really disappointing, hopefully they will set a maximum number of attempts for future quests as its ridiculous!
The sad thing is, that although there is a small chance to get no granite in seven runs, it doesn't improve your odds in number eight, although eight in a row is even rarer. Anyway, good luck to them who are still trying.
Sorry, but this is also wrong. Your chance to fail on the second attempt, and all following attempts, is exactly the same as on the first attempt.Quote:
Originally Posted by Antilochus
If you flip a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, the odds of the 11th flip being a head is still 50%.
Probability is a nightmare! :)
i know several that have finished the tasks for the under level 35 but only one that has completed above level 35.
i am only at task 5 and it is very slow going. I do hope that the odds are "ever in our favour"
the chance you fail the x-th time indeed still is 67%. But he listed the chances you fail x-time in a row.
If you start now, the chance you wont get granite in 2 chances is not 67% but as listed.
Sorry, but it's not. :) No matter how many times in a row you do it, just like the toss of a coin, the probability of the outcome remains the same. Every time you do the adventure, your chance of getting granite is 33%, whether it is the first time or the 100th. That's just how probability is. Being unsuccessful 99 times would still mean you had a 33% chance the 100th time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Promethos
You're reading it wrong Bob.
The change you no get granite the 3rd time is 67%
The change you no get granite in 3 tries is .67^3 = 29%
That's what the list says. The adventures dont have a memory, so every time you have the same old chance. But of course the chance you find granite eventually changes. The chance you find granite with 1 try is not the same as the chance you find granite in 100 tries.
It doesn't work like that - the probability zeroes on every try precisely because, as you point out, the adventure has no memory. There's no change in the probability because there's no link between the adventures. Calculating the odds on falling to find granite 10 times in a row would be a far more complicated equation that considered far more than the stated drop rate - we don't know the precise details of how the code allocates rewards and even the drop rates are open to question.Quote:
Originally Posted by Promethos
This is why I said about probabilities being a nightmare. Many people have lost fortunes in casinos thinking that it's impossible or even hugely unlikely for red or black to come up 10 times in a row. At best the list is misleading because it suggests there is an increase in likelihood of getting granite on each try, when there isn't.
if the drop-rate doesn't change after a couple of failures, or with level (and as far as I know, that's not the case)... that's all that matters. What else do you want to include, the price of crude oil or the weatherforecast?
The list states the chance you still havent found granite after x-searches, when you start with 0 searches. Workd fine, it's really not a complicated formula at all.
Take the coin. Now how big is the chance you get side B 3x in a row? Yup .50^3 = 12.5%
throw it 100 times. That gives you (statistically) 50 * B as first throw
From those 50 throws half of them give a B the 2nd time -> 25
from those 25 throws half of them gives B agin -> 12.5
Ooh see, 0.50^3 =12.5% :)
I think we're just debating presentation here - as it was presented, the list gives the impression that the more times you try the adventure the greater your chances of success.Quote:
Originally Posted by Promethos
As for the drop rate - do you know how the coding decides what rewards to drop? We've been given these percentages, but where did they come from? I'm not saying they are wrong, but as you'll well know it only takes a small change in these numbers (or the method of choosing drop rewards) to completely alter the results. :)
(Just to be clear, I'm not questioning your maths at all, just the way this list was potentially giving false hope to those who might have failed many times already.)
BobLurker,
Giving false hope is creating a quest chain to get a watermill and gems when you complete it but then making it so some quests require luck to complete and then setting a two week time limit...
bandits number 2 gave me titanium ore
lets see what bandits number 3 brings...
Great Qwests loved them
Droprates can be a pain but we all knew that wenn we started this chain and been lookking in to given info wich was easy to find on forum. There's people in guild who didnt started as they assumed they would not be able to finish last adv. granite drop qwest. Others bite the bullit and Play Surprise attack several times not such a problem wenn you team up and lev50ies team up with a non 50lev theres nice exp to gain.
Nice work BB keep us going and give us moar of this great rewards and great guild bonding mini events
Hmm the list is factually correct. If people misread it as false hope well... as your example suggests, the same people will misread it in the casinos. So it's probably a good thing that they're learning about it here than at the betting tables :) I'll edit it with a disclaimer.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLurker
Edit: Actually yes, I can see how the wording I used could have been misleading. I've changed it :p
the level 36-45 quest chain involves getting granite from single player adventures, I'd buy loot spots if they were two player to increase my chances of hitting granite.Quote:
Originally Posted by Snorf
On another note, I just finished the questline :) Level 40 but I was lucky to get granite on my second bandit's nest.
Same here, 3x Motherly Love 1x Suprise Attack :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Antilochus
I am startin to think that settlers is trying to rip us off........ done this stupid adv bandits nest 7 times and no granite just exo logs..... i dont think its possible to get granite... then again out of the last 2 months at doing about 3 adv's a day... i have only gotten granite twice and thast it......
Finished four winds! If gems were out as reward it wouldnt be worth doing it.
Nice quest.
Nice quest? Principle of the quest is based on the random generator. Stupid player to do it with happiness, but good player with no luck no chance.
Bandit nest 7/0 (3 wood and 4 titanium???).
Whatever idiot thought this with random awards from adventure gonna be fun-well it isn't and is killing everything I liked it this game.
BB should keep that guy(s) out from development of game because it was a "really good" job done...
The people who have read this thread would know, but the vast majority of players would not have. The quest only revealed the next stage on completion of the previous one. Not everyone thinks to read a forum for this stuff and it shouldn't be necessary to in order to enjoy the game. For all the recent events we have seen too much reliance by BB on the forums to spread information and not enough coming directly from BB to each player. In this instance I hope BB learns the two important lessons - 1. Don't have luck involved in completing a quest. 2. Make sure ALL players know the size of the challenge they are facing before they commit a lot of resources to something they can't win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Snorf
You're wrong here Bob. When you got drop rate, you will have luck. Combining the quest with luck and put a timer on it (that's still missing, I might add politely) it's the ultimate challenge we, bored people could get! And BB made is sure to be accessible to the other levels.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLurker
Some tips on how to stay positive :
- Play with friends
- Invest in new things, even if those things are expensive. You will need them eventually.
- You get a Guild and make a social thing out of it
- Make use of the trade
Understand:
- This quest is a tad different
- There is luck to this, but you need to think and plan the stuff. It's not easy.
- YOU DON'T HAVE TO MAKE IT
I really appreciate you explaining grade level maths to me like I'm an idiot. I know what a percentage is. I understand statistics - I just literally mentioned that this was more likely to be confirmation bias than any foul play on the part of the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Promethos
Also, your "we hear about the outliers" spiel is correct, but completely irrelevant for my case. I myself experienced these 7 failures. I didn't hear about them from anyone else. Explaining to me that this isn't as unlikely to happen as I'd think because I'm more likely to hear about it when it happens is nonsense when it just happened to me.
Thanks for the lesson nonetheless. Maybe tomorrow you can teach me how to ride a bicycle.
This is pretty close to being the worst advice you could offer anyone playing TSO. Don't ever invest in anything because you might need it in the future. Even the most advanced buildings can be built in about an hour - there's no reason to prepare production chains, tying up building licenses in useless workyards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Whizkeyjack
Quote:
Originally Posted by EctoRune
Jeez, drama queen is on.
Bad advice and name-calling? Keep the quality posts coming!Quote:
Originally Posted by Whizkeyjack
I'm sorry, I didn't know that telling people to stay positive and try working together with others in a SOCIAL game is considered as bad advice in your book. And pointing out attitude it's not name-calling.Quote:
Originally Posted by EctoRune
Telling people to build useless buildings surely is bad advice. And saying I'm a drama queen is surely not far removed from calling me "poopoo head". I agree that working together is a good idea. I don't agree that this somehow exonerates Four Winds from the design issues it has.Quote:
Originally Posted by Whizkeyjack