Four Winds Quest

[Promethos]

Guild mates came through again. Missed the granite again. 7 failed attempts at this point. 6% chance isn't flat out impossible, but it sure isn't likely. Still, confirmation bias and all that.

ooh that's not strange at all. 6% is a pretty big chance actually. It means if 100 people are trying, you'de expect it to happen to 6 of them. So with lots of players trying, it will happen to some of them. And it just happens to be your guildmate. Bad luck, but on 1 unfortunate case you cant tell if the chances are different or if it's really just bad luck.

And the change we hear about it is a lot bigger then 6%. People who have lots of (bad)luck tell it to many more people then the people who experience nothing strange. And bad experiences are told to even more people then good luck. So yeah, it would be strange if we wouldn't here from the unfortunate fellows.

Say you're on a birthdayparty. If one of your friends went cycling last week and had 2 flat tires, it's almost guaranteed you'll hear about it and how extremely unlucky he was. But how often has someone said to you "well what happened to me yesterday.... I went cycling and came home without a flat tire. That's sooooo normal!". Chances are several people heard the first story, and noone ever heard someone telling the 2nd much more common event. The rare events really stand out, but you dont realize how often nothing weirds happens. (almost all the time actually. Look out the window, anything out of the ordinary happening? No?)

[Antilochus]

Look out the window, anything out of the ordinary happening? No?)

Weird.. my next door neighbour is humming the national anthem stood on one leg with his finger up his nose :s

[Nogbad]

Day 10 of 14 on my german server, and the explorers have still not found any granite!

[TheRook21]

Day 10 of 14 on my german server, and the explorers have still not found any granite!

as I mentioned much earlier on this thread, its possible to not be able to complete this adventure on the first quest if luck isnt on your side.

Its really disappointing, hopefully they will set a maximum number of attempts for future quests as its ridiculous!

[Goudsten]

The sad thing is, that although there is a small chance to get no granite in seven runs, it doesn't improve your odds in number eight, although eight in a row is even rarer. Anyway, good luck to them who are still trying.

[Imorticia]

i know several that have finished the tasks for the under level 35 but only one that has completed above level 35.
i am only at task 5 and it is very slow going. I do hope that the odds are "ever in our favour"

[BobLurker]

I'm a bit bored (and a bit sad), so I've decided to list the chances of failing to get granite on bandit's nest:

Chance to fail with 1 attempt: 67%
Chance to fail with 2 attempts: 44%
Chance to fail with 3 attempts: 29%
Chance to fail with 4 attempts: 20%
Chance to fail with 5 attempts: 13%
Chance to fail with 6 attempts: 9%
Chance to fail with 7 attempts: 6%
Chance to fail with 8 attempts: 4%
Chance to fail with 9 attempts: 2.6%
Chance to fail with 10 attempts: 1.7%
Chance to fail with 11 attempts: 1.2%
Chance to fail with 12 attempts: 0.8%
Chance to fail with 13 attempts: 0.5%
Chance to fail with 14 attempts: 0.34%
Chance to fail with 15 attempts: 0.22%

I'm going to stop here, by this point you'd have killed yourself in a fit of depression (at the chances, not my post.. well maybe my post.. )

Sorry, but this is also wrong. Your chance to fail on the second attempt, and all following attempts, is exactly the same as on the first attempt.

If you flip a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, the odds of the 11th flip being a head is still 50%.

Probability is a nightmare!

[Promethos]

the chance you fail the x-th time indeed still is 67%. But he listed the chances you fail x-time in a row.

If you start now, the chance you wont get granite in 2 chances is not 67% but as listed.

[BobLurker]

the chance you fail the x-th time indeed still is 67%. But he listed the chances you fail x-time in a row.

If you start now, the chance you wont get granite in 2 chances is not 67% but as listed.

Sorry, but it's not. No matter how many times in a row you do it, just like the toss of a coin, the probability of the outcome remains the same. Every time you do the adventure, your chance of getting granite is 33%, whether it is the first time or the 100th. That's just how probability is. Being unsuccessful 99 times would still mean you had a 33% chance the 100th time.

[Promethos]

You're reading it wrong Bob.

The change you no get granite the 3rd time is 67%
The change you no get granite in 3 tries is .67^3 = 29%

That's what the list says. The adventures dont have a memory, so every time you have the same old chance. But of course the chance you find granite eventually changes. The chance you find granite with 1 try is not the same as the chance you find granite in 100 tries.