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I permit mods to look my stats.
And tell me where is granite.
I have done dozens of Pirates last days, and have got granite only TWICE. It is supposed to be 50-50
No joke, I feel like i am cursed.
I know how statistics work, but unless i am in the 2% case that i have only 2 granites in 15times, I ask if anybody else confirms the same.
And of course same goes to adventures. I got 8 explorers, and havent got a BK for example for 10 days.
I allow mods to pick my stats.
What is going on?
You assume that those percentages are correct but i doubt they are. The actual drop rate seems to be way way lower. Otherwise there is no explanation for all the exotic logs i get on advents that list the same percentage for granite.
Edit: 10 days you say for BK? I haven't got one in more than a month... Id say you're lucky if you got one in 10 days...
I got 8 explorers, going round n round n round every day. Nothing.
I am doing 3-4-5 adventures every day (including buying LS) and nothing.
Half of these adventures are solo, that are supposed to have 50-50 chance of granite.
I am not talking about RB that has 25% and then you have salt-pepper and stuff like that.
I have done literaly 15 Pirates, and got only 2 times granite.
The stats that were supposed to be, in my experience dont work anymore. I cannot be simply unlucky everywhere and for so long.
It seems, that i am halted somehow...
I get much more granite from adv that exo logs.
I have exo 45K logs (not planks, logs that are waiting to be converted...).
I furthermore have 10-15K exo planks.
and... 3K granite.
I know some buildings are granite hungry, but also ther are exo planks hungry buildings. For example lvl 5, barracks, provision, bookbinder = 5K granite, 9K planks
I often sell things for granite only, to reinforce my granite stock. Never had to reinforce my log stock.
Still my ratio is 45K logs, (and who knows how many Ks already converted to planks)
and 3K granite...
I cannot be that unlucky in the long term.
Just a note to say that Mods are unable to view any stats on your account, you'll need to contact Support for information like that.
2 more ML adventures ended,
no granite.
1600logs + 2000 logs.
I will keep this as my log.
On adventures the granites seems to be part of the loot less often than the exotic hardwood indeed, but my explorers keep finding granite all the time.
Your game seems possessed, have you considered and exorcism?Quote:
Originally Posted by Deorum
I also kept a "log"... 5 days in a row with 3-4 advents a day (combo of pirates/outlaws/sftr/bk) and 2-3 ls (bk/nords) and got a big nothing. You're not the only one... those drops are a mystery as far as am concernedQuote:
Originally Posted by Deorum
I did 3 DB's today and got 1.5k granite twice and 1.3k granite once so 4.3k granite from 3 adventures. Goes to show how averages work or maybe I am just lucky...
Pirates, 700gr, but i need like 4 more to be close to average, after 15-16 pirates, this is perhaps the 3rd time.
Well, I fully agree...a different example for adventure loot...I really want to get a castle so I have played "Stealing from the Rich" for several months...many times...Quote:
Originally Posted by stefanceltare
The probability of getting the castle is about 4%...it is low, but really with more less 50 games I have not got it, neither my friends have... I am a bit frustrated and I see only two possibilities: my friends and I are very unlucky or the given odds of 4% are not true...
Pirates, 1000 logs.
A 4% chance does not mean if you do it 100 times you will win 4 times. What it really means is at any given instant you have a 1 in 25 chance of winning with previous attempts having no influence over your chances of the win. 4% is only a idealized number which will show some variation over time.
Dorotheus, i know how statistics work, i was pretty good at school trust me. I am not talking about white castle, but with pirates, 50%-50% something is obviously wrong. It still can be my bad luck, of course, getting 5 in a row logs, is possible, with 50-50 chances.
The chance is
1/2^5 = 1/64 or ~2%.
900gr, Pirates (my whining seems to have some effect :P )
Previous attempts have NO bearing on the result of your current attempt. It does not matter which random element of the game is currently going against you, be it coins from explorer searches, loot from adventures or adventures found. In your case no matter how many times it is always going to be 1/2, 1/2^5 is you applying the wrong sort of maths to the problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deorum
I am not talking about previous attemps.
Who told you about current attempt.
Come on.
I am talking about total overall chances from no1 attempt to no10 attempt.
It is clear that.
How much chances you have to bring 5 times in a row logs? In a 50-50 chance adventure, like pirates?
The chance is 1/2^5.
make it simpler there is a good chance, 1/32 players will get 5 times same thing in a row.
This is correct, and no doubt about that.
You can still get 100 times the same result in a row. the formula is =1/2^100.
Very small, but yes you can play for a year and still get nothing.
PS. STFR, 300logs.
SFTR again, 400logs.
You fail to understand that the concept of total overall chances is WRONG.
Attempt 1 odds 50%
Attempt 2 odds 50%
Attempt 3 odds 50%
So on and so forth ad infinitum. The odds will always be 50%, adding a to the power x where x is the number of attempts is not applicable in this situation. It's not just maths which say so it's also the consumer laws of at least some of the country's where settlers is available.