Where is granite...

[stefanceltare]

2 more ML adventures ended,
no granite.

1600logs + 2000 logs.

I will keep this as my log.

I also kept a "log"... 5 days in a row with 3-4 advents a day (combo of pirates/outlaws/sftr/bk) and 2-3 ls (bk/nords) and got a big nothing. You're not the only one... those drops are a mystery as far as am concerned

[fishslice]

I did 3 DB's today and got 1.5k granite twice and 1.3k granite once so 4.3k granite from 3 adventures. Goes to show how averages work or maybe I am just lucky...

[Deorum]

Pirates, 700gr, but i need like 4 more to be close to average, after 15-16 pirates, this is perhaps the 3rd time.

[Mechanix]

You assume that those percentages are correct but i doubt they are....

Well, I fully agree...a different example for adventure loot...I really want to get a castle so I have played "Stealing from the Rich" for several months...many times...
The probability of getting the castle is about 4%...it is low, but really with more less 50 games I have not got it, neither my friends have... I am a bit frustrated and I see only two possibilities: my friends and I are very unlucky or the given odds of 4% are not true...

[Deorum]

Pirates, 1000 logs.

[Dorotheus]

A 4% chance does not mean if you do it 100 times you will win 4 times. What it really means is at any given instant you have a 1 in 25 chance of winning with previous attempts having no influence over your chances of the win. 4% is only a idealized number which will show some variation over time.

[Deorum]

Dorotheus, i know how statistics work, i was pretty good at school trust me. I am not talking about white castle, but with pirates, 50%-50% something is obviously wrong. It still can be my bad luck, of course, getting 5 in a row logs, is possible, with 50-50 chances.
The chance is
1/2^5 = 1/64 or ~2%.

[Deorum]

900gr, Pirates (my whining seems to have some effect :P )

[Dorotheus]

Dorotheus, i know how statistics work, i was pretty good at school trust me. I am not talking about white castle, but with pirates, 50%-50% something is obviously wrong. It still can be my bad luck, of course, getting 5 in a row logs, is possible, with 50-50 chances.
The chance is
1/2^5 = 1/64 or ~2%.

Previous attempts have NO bearing on the result of your current attempt. It does not matter which random element of the game is currently going against you, be it coins from explorer searches, loot from adventures or adventures found. In your case no matter how many times it is always going to be 1/2, 1/2^5 is you applying the wrong sort of maths to the problem.

[Deorum]

I am not talking about previous attemps.
Who told you about current attempt.
Come on.
I am talking about total overall chances from no1 attempt to no10 attempt.
It is clear that.
How much chances you have to bring 5 times in a row logs? In a 50-50 chance adventure, like pirates?
The chance is 1/2^5.

make it simpler there is a good chance, 1/32 players will get 5 times same thing in a row.

This is correct, and no doubt about that.

You can still get 100 times the same result in a row. the formula is =1/2^100.
Very small, but yes you can play for a year and still get nothing.

PS. STFR, 300logs.