Can bb do proper maths ?????

[ATHTHEMANIAC]

ok past week 2 times a day i try to find my fast copper mines.....my fast geo's are skilled for 45% chance of finding them but i have to send them out over 15 times to find 5 of them and the last one is taking over 20 times to find.....1/20 is not 45%.....
the skill is not working as it says (BB just lying) or something is broken.....this is same for fast gold mines to....have to send more and more times to find fast ones....the tree skill % chance bares no relationship to what actually happens....
whatever it is fix it....now
or at least tell us the proper % chance instead of lying about some fake figure you have made up out thin air......

[Fan-Tom-As]

he-he, I have completed more than 200 stealing from the rich, but never got any White Castle....

[CrazyBat]

I think it is 45% chance of finding one eacht time, so there is always 55% chance that you won't find it.

[Sharpielein]

I don't even bother getting the speedy mines any more, not worth the hassle.

[ATHTHEMANIAC]

crazybat yes your correct 45%chance each time.....but when when you are finding only 5 in 100 that = a 5% chance....this is my point is nowhere near 45%....
doing 60 searches to find 6 fast mines = less then 10% not the 45% the skill is meant to give.....

tbh fan-tom-as...loot % are a totally different thing.....you cant compare the 2 things as you dont spend any books to increase your chance of white castle or any particular loot dropping....

[Promethos]

uhm Í'm a bit confused.

You have case A where you have a certain change of succes (finding fast coppermines)
You have case B where you have a certain change of succes (finding a white castle)

Why should math apply to the first case, but not to the 2nd?

Besides that, statistics can do weird things. I kept track of granite/elogs in the loot for several hundred adventures. I got elogs 15x in a row, but also 18x granite in 20 adventures. In the end it all levelled nicely though.
If you take just 1 sample, you have 100% fast mine, or 0% fast mines. In both cases, it's pretty far off from the average change of 45%. Statistics and limited sample-size just doesn't go very well together.

[CrazyBat]

No, you didn't understand. You can not count 45% of finding a mine on all searches you make. It is 45% for each search. So always 10% less than that you will not find one. Every time you send your geo.

[Zotamedu]

No the devs can't do proper maths. That has been well established for quite some time.

[Dorotheus]

I see no evidence here to prove the case one way or the other.

[Koraku]

Wow the lack of basic probability math here is astounding...

The %chance on fast copper mine or white castle do NOT HAVE MEMORY. Therefore you're not garanteed a fast copper mine after 2.x amount of searches. It just stays 45% every damned time.

This also means that, theoretically, you can do a thousand copper mine searches without ever getting a fast one (however chances of that happening are low).

Stop using minute personal sample-size and extrapolate that to%chance.


I once got 4x granite from BK in a row... Doesn't mean granite is a 100% drop, I just got lucky... that is what chance is. Educate yourself before you spout this nonsense...